Just trying to gauge early feelings about the next presidential election, especially with the looming specter of Trump running again. Thanks to any and all who take it
Okay, this should be fun to see how wrong we all are in 2024. Here’s a summary of my responses. I’m sure I’ll look like a fool in a few years.
I think Trump is unlikely to run in 2024. 78 years old, could be in financial or legal trouble, doesn’t want the ego hit of losing two presidential elections back to back. The party already worships his ass. That being said, he’s fucking crazy and anything can happen so no “very unlikely.” Just think it’s more likely than not he sits out.
If he runs the nomination is his in a landslide. If he does not run I think the frontrunner is Mike Pence unless Donald Trump Jr. runs. Forget the QAnon people who want to hang him, they’re a loud minority in the party. Most conservatives see Pence as Trump’s loyal #2 for 4 years and he also has deep ties to the pre-Trump GOP. He’ll win evangelicals too since he is one. He’ll have the most name recognition in the party as well. Other top contenders are Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz. If Trump Jr. runs he could be favored over Pence, but I don’t think Trump Jr. runs.
If Trump endorses another candidate in the 2024 primary, that candidate will win. I am not sure he will do so unless it comes down to a Trump loyalist vs. an anti-Trumper. I don’t think he endorses in, say, Pence vs. DeSantis, even though he might prefer the latter.
Trump can absolutely win in 2024. If the 2024 Democratic nominee is a disaster candidate like Elizabeth Warren he might even be favored. Trump vs. Biden rematch is a coin flip. If Dems pick Harris we’ll see if she’s learned any lessons on how to campaign after flaming out in 2020.
I think Biden is more likely than not going to retire after his first term, but “unlikely” not “very unlikely.” He’d be 82, that’s pretty darn old. If he does not run, Kamala Harris will enter the primary in 2024 as a clear but not unstoppable favorite. She’d be about as much of a favorite as Biden was in 2020. If a celebrity candidate like Michelle Obama or Oprah runs, they could be favored over Kamala out of the gate. But I don’t think either of them have any desire to run.
I think the GOP are slight favorites to take back both the House and Senate in 2022 but both chambers will be very close. Some Democrats have really forgotten how badly incumbent parties typically lose midterms.
If an explicitly anti-Trump candidate runs in the 2024 GOP primary, I could see them getting about 15% of the vote in the primary, maybe a bit more. There are more anti-Trump Republicans in the country than you think. Not a ton, but there are some. John Kasich got ~15% of the vote in 2016. I imagine a similar anti-Trumper would do about that well, maybe even a bit better. Not nearly enough to win or meaningfully challenge a Trumper, though.
QAnon will have some influence in the GOP but you won’t see a serious contender candidate yelling WWG1WGA on the debate stage. Just platitudes like “we’re a diverse party and we don’t all agree on everything” when asked about it. You might see one Q person run for president and fall apart or a couple more take House seats but that’s about it for the foreseeable future.
I agree with all of this except your republican nomination takes. I think there’s no way Cruz ever gets close to the nomination again. I know there’s a good chance he could’ve got the nom in 2016 if Trump hadn’t run, but these past few years have just been nonstop humiliations and Ls (unless you count beating Beto by a way slimmer margin than he should have as a W) that he’s only survived because he’s a snake that always gravitates to what will best serve him in the moment, and I think that hurts him for the nomination, not because Republican voters really care that much about naked opportunism, but because I don’t think they can stomach someone who got made Trump’s bitch so thoroughly and hilariously. He’s too much of a repulsive creep to withstand sustained attack about how much of a cuck he is. I also don’t know if Pence or Jr would be favorites either, neither have any charisma (at least, no charisma outside of specific audiences) and Jr is one of the greatest failsons of all time, I cannot believe that he wouldn’t fuck it up royally somehow. If I had to put money on it, I’d go with DeSantis but I have absolutely no confidence in that guess.
This is all fun speculation so I’ll respond:
I’m bullish on Ted Cruz because he has high name recognition, he’s currently cashing on culture war shit (the GOP’s strategy in the midterms), and because he along with Hawley is the face of the overturn-the-election caucus. Given how psychotic the GOP base is about the election that gives Cruz a great angle to run on. You could definitely be right that they might want a macho man not a guy who was a sniveling Trump toady though.
I’m bullish on Pence for pretty simple reasons: former VPs have like a 50% success rate in the primary when running for president. Just feel like a lot of people will see him as the default until proven otherwise and he could shamble across the finish line like Joe Biden did. I don’t think charisma matters a whole lot in a world where 4 of the last 6 presidential nominees are Mitt Romney, John McCain’s shambling corpse, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton. All 4 of those people beat much more charismatic opponents and still won.
Fair points, but the Republican primary electorate is way different from the Democrat primary electorate that nominated Clinton and Biden. As for McCain and Romney, 2008 McCain’s biggest rivals were Mike Huckabee, who was way too committed to evangelicism to work on a national level, Ron Paul, who was never going to win, and Mitt Romney (lol), and in 2012 Romney’s biggest rivals were Santorum (see Huckabee), Ron Paul (see Ron Paul), and Newt Gingrich, who was past his expiration date.
