Just trying to gauge early feelings about the next presidential election, especially with the looming specter of Trump running again. Thanks to any and all who take it
I agree with all of this except your republican nomination takes. I think there’s no way Cruz ever gets close to the nomination again. I know there’s a good chance he could’ve got the nom in 2016 if Trump hadn’t run, but these past few years have just been nonstop humiliations and Ls (unless you count beating Beto by a way slimmer margin than he should have as a W) that he’s only survived because he’s a snake that always gravitates to what will best serve him in the moment, and I think that hurts him for the nomination, not because Republican voters really care that much about naked opportunism, but because I don’t think they can stomach someone who got made Trump’s bitch so thoroughly and hilariously. He’s too much of a repulsive creep to withstand sustained attack about how much of a cuck he is. I also don’t know if Pence or Jr would be favorites either, neither have any charisma (at least, no charisma outside of specific audiences) and Jr is one of the greatest failsons of all time, I cannot believe that he wouldn’t fuck it up royally somehow. If I had to put money on it, I’d go with DeSantis but I have absolutely no confidence in that guess.
This is all fun speculation so I’ll respond:
I’m bullish on Ted Cruz because he has high name recognition, he’s currently cashing on culture war shit (the GOP’s strategy in the midterms), and because he along with Hawley is the face of the overturn-the-election caucus. Given how psychotic the GOP base is about the election that gives Cruz a great angle to run on. You could definitely be right that they might want a macho man not a guy who was a sniveling Trump toady though.
I’m bullish on Pence for pretty simple reasons: former VPs have like a 50% success rate in the primary when running for president. Just feel like a lot of people will see him as the default until proven otherwise and he could shamble across the finish line like Joe Biden did. I don’t think charisma matters a whole lot in a world where 4 of the last 6 presidential nominees are Mitt Romney, John McCain’s shambling corpse, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton. All 4 of those people beat much more charismatic opponents and still won.
Fair points, but the Republican primary electorate is way different from the Democrat primary electorate that nominated Clinton and Biden. As for McCain and Romney, 2008 McCain’s biggest rivals were Mike Huckabee, who was way too committed to evangelicism to work on a national level, Ron Paul, who was never going to win, and Mitt Romney (lol), and in 2012 Romney’s biggest rivals were Santorum (see Huckabee), Ron Paul (see Ron Paul), and Newt Gingrich, who was past his expiration date.
