If the electoral college wasn’t bad enough, Trump will be actively suppressing votes. With election chances almost even, “russian interference” almost definitely tips the scales to trump, right?
He needs to get within 3 points or just around the margin of error with Biden to make cheating the rest of the distance plausible. It also needs to seem legitimate enough that the mass media says Trump wins on election night. If it is a long delay like with Iowa I don’t think it works out, capital can intervene by effectively refusing to call it until the missing votes are accounted for and pausing at a favorable Biden count. Trump can and most likely will respond by immediately saying he’s being cheated, but the media has been laying the ground work for months that will undercut him. Trump’s other weakness is that a lot of the swing states he needs to go along with this don’t have red local governments.