Aside from covid of course…

My prediction is a texas-style grid failure but with a wider scale. Where I live, the electrical infrastructure is crumbling and there were a number of 1-2 day long outages this year which is new. Also a generally very poor area so little resources or motivation to fix or reinforce anything.

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The supply chain is still in a horrible state with lead times that are on the scale of months to years when they used to be days to weeks. Essentials have been prioritized so that you don’t see it (as much) at the grocery store, but industries are in a pretty fucky state. The system is very much at risk from further disruptions and sudden increases in demand.

Hospitals are still at high capacity in blue states/cities, just not the immediate crisis level in red states/rural areas. We’re approaching winter and have at least two challenging variants to consider - delta for its rapid spread and moderate/unclear level of breakthrough infections and the mu variant that’s much less contagious but potentially much better able to infect the vaccinated. The balance of selective pressures could shift once delta immunity among the unvaccinated starts to take hold, putting the (more vaccinated) blue areas beyond the tipping point. The delta peak in my fairly vaccinated lib city has already been higher than last year’s winter peak and ICUs were full several times.

Your point about partisan/class cruelty is well-taken. The threshold for action is high due to mutual animosity and the fact that right wingers don’t even care about their own side dying like flies because it runs counter to their belief system. This serves as a pretty huge buffer to recognizing the systemic failures and making any demands and it’s hard to predict where the floor is or if a floor even exists for the American populace.

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