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20 points

South Africa also has a larger share of younger people, who generally become less severely afflicted, than the western countries have. AFAIK at this point it is to early to say if omicron gives more or less severe covid.

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12 points
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I think it’s too early to be sure, but not too early to have some pretty strong suspicions that it’s less severe.

While South Africa is a young country, we can still compare apples to apples by comparing it to South Africa’s Delta wave. While cases are high, Delta had a higher case fatality, hospitalization, and severe outcome rate than Omicron.

I’m fully okay with waiting to get more data before being conclusive, but I think the point estimate is less severe with a wide margin of error.

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