“The cost in human lives is appalling,” writes Molan. Xi Jinping has delivered his message even as the world still struggles to restore communications. Xi’s message to America, as Molan puts it:
“You are out of the Western Pacific and we will not let you re-establish your bases in Japan, South Korea or even Guam. From Japan to Australia and out to Hawaii, the Western Pacific is now a Chinese sphere of influence.”
It’s merely a scenario, but is it plausible? Molan argues that we’re preparing for the wrong war. He thinks that we’re all standing around waiting for a limited Chinese attack on Taiwan. And while he says that’s possible, it would only happen if China’s strategists are silly.
If Xi struck Taiwan, his attacking forces would be vulnerable to a hammering from the US. Why would he accept that pain when he has the option of pushing America out of the hemisphere altogether, forcing it back to the region east of Hawaii?
Then he can take Taiwan at his leisure, probably without the use of force. And dictate terms to US allies including Australia, now cut off from its great ally.
And Xi can luxuriate in history’s acclaim as the ruler who ended half a millennium of Western dominance of the Pacific.
angloid military strategists always make reality sound 10000x cooler than reality
Mostly because only China really has hypersonic ballistic anti ship missiles, many of which are still in testing, and none of which have ever been fired at an enemy ship in combat. That means that it’s absolutely possible that said missiles don’t work as intended, or flat out don’t work.
However, because military planning proceeds on the basis of assuming the best for your enemy and the worst for yourself, China still has to build a surface navy because it needs to prepare for the eventuality that it’s ballistic missiles turn out to be V-2 rocket level wunderwaffles.
