Mostly accurate, but the thing you’re not mentioning is that both Pascal and Roko scared themselves with Big Numbers. In both cases, the cost for acting as a true believer is manageable, human scale, but the cost for the unbeliever is near infinite. So (their thinking goes), even if the existence of God or the omnipotent singleton AI is very, very unlikely, the rational thing to do is to behave as if they did.

Now, to an outsider, it’s clear that you can imagine an infinity of mutually contradictory infinite threats, which makes these arguments totally bogus. But if you are already a true believer, you discount the other threats.