seems like we only have ~10 years to deal with climate change. also seems like joe biden is gonna get the nom. What the fuck do we do in these next few years given that the dems are not remotely interested in dealing with climate change in any real way?
different regions would be seized by different groups so different weapons might fall into the hands of some group, sure. but as the central state collapses, which is what balkanization implies, it’s not going to suddenly turn around and start nuking within it’s own borders. chemical and biological weapons? sure. but you can’t really hide nukes going off. it would literally invite invasion.
if it’s some splinter group that gets its hands on a nuclear weapon, they have to do so with knowledge of how to unlock, arm, and fire the things, so outside of splinter factions of the US military, that’s also out.
that said, we’re also likely to get invaded as the whole world has a stake in the outcome, at which point the state using nukes seems more reasonable, but they’re much more likely to try to hit the invading countries back home as to try and hit american soil.
so all in all, I don’t think nukes are likely if we balkanize due to the onset of a civil war.
you’re assuming a coherent entity capable of making these choices. in fact, it will be many small groups making their own calls because no one can tell what the central authority even wants. while they still retain control, they’ll be cautious about showing weakness to the outside world. once control starts slipping (which will likely happen before the start any of conflict), too many factions will be vying for power within and around the state. I’m not saying it’s impossible that bombs go off. I’m saying that it’s unlikely to be a tactical decision made for the furtherance of a war.
