Image is from Vladimir Putin’s speech that he gave on February 24th, 2022, announcing the beginning of what he called the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
On February 24th, it will be one year since Russia began the invasion of Ukraine.
And while it’s sometimes felt like it dragged on, what a dense year it’s been! We’ve seen the anti-hegemonic axis of Russia and China closely bind together to oppose America, with several other nations joining or aligning with them. We’ve seen de-dollarization go from a passive, gradual process to one that is actively taking place for the explicit purpose of weakening America’s hold on global finance and trade. We’ve seen Europe fully subjugated, as it sacrifices cheap energy for the sake of American interests. And we’ve seen Latin America continue to generally shift leftwards and away from American interests.
We’ve also seen death and destruction on a staggering, though far from unprecedented scale. The number of soldiers killed in Ukraine has been stunning, all for the whims of NATO, and the number of refugees flooding out has only pushed Europe further into nationalism and racism. We’ve seen the standard and quality of living of hundreds of millions of people - if not billions - noticeably decrease as a result of the economic warfare and sanctions and price caps. We’ve seen massive protests and perhaps attempted color revolutions, and successful coups. We’ve seen earthquakes. We’ve seen climate change accelerate, causing droughts and heatwaves throughout entire regions - in America, in Europe, in China, and in the Horn of Africa. And the coronavirus pandemic has only gotten worse, while governments manufacture the consent of their citizens to stop caring and leave behind even basic preventative measures in the service of capital.
The old world is dying. The new world struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters. And balloons.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we’ve collected.
I am on break for the next week as I recharge my batteries. The next update will be on the 27th. I will post a few links here and there so the thread isn’t just dead.
Links and Stuff
American anti-war rally on March 18th by left groups!
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are fairly brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. The Duran, of which he co-hosts, is where the chuddery really begins to spill out.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ Now rebranded as Battlefield Insights, they do infrequent posts on the conflict.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it’s a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of the really big pro-Russian (except when they’re being pessismistic, which is often) telegram channels focussing on the war. Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Any Western media outlet that is even vaguely liberal (and quite a few conservative ones too).
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week’s discussion post.
Bhadrakumar’s piece from February 16th, on China-Iran relations, focussing of course on the recent visit of Raisi to China.
China-Iran ties on the right side of history
The three-day state visit by Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi to China on February 14-16 is a landmark event affecting regional politics and international security. The red carpet welcome accorded to Raisi signified the high importance attached by Beijing to the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran in the prevailing international milieu.
In a ‘curtain-raiser’ on Monday, Global Times wrote that the visit “shows the Raisi administration’s unswerving determination to promote the ‘Look to the East’ policy.”
The CCP Central Committee newspaper then went on to make a profound statement: “Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy meant the transition from its policy of negative balancing and non-alignment to building alliances with non-western world powers that have similar political structures to Iran, such as Russia and China.”
This must be the first time that Beijing explicitly hailed Iran’s transition toward an alliance with non-western world powers that do not qualify as liberal democracies — “such as Russia and China.” This characterisation becomes the leitmotif of Raisi’s visit to China. Indeed, Beijing, Moscow and Tehran are sailing in the same boat as the pioneers of a democratised world order defying US hegemony.
On the following day, in a lengthy editorial, Global Times dwelt on the strategic ramifications, taking note that “outside the US-West bloc and its influence circle, there is huge space and potential for win-win cooperation” between Beijing and Tehran. It said:
“China’s deepening cooperation with Iran also has anti-hegemony and anti-bullying feature. Both China and Iran uphold independent foreign policies, firmly defend the principle of non-interference in internal affairs on international occasions, and safeguard the common interests of developing countries. This is conducive to promoting the multi-polarization and diversified development of the world, and conforms to the general trend of the times…
“Under Washington’s moves, the international structure is being divided and restructured, with the vicious trend of forming blocs and camps again emerging, which puts the non-Western world in a difficult situation and once again faces historical choices. The existing US-led international system has designs to bully and exploit developing countries and emerging countries. Now Washington still thinks that it is not convenient enough, that the interests of developing countries have increased in weight, and wants to reconstruct a new international system with a stronger tendency, which is undoubtedly a major challenge for the non-Western world and needs to be resisted by forming a joint effort.”
This compelling thought appeared in the opening statement of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the meeting with Raisi on Tuesday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing when he said that “amid the profound changes in the international situation, China and Iran have constantly consolidated their strategic mutual trust and steadily advanced pragmatic cooperation. They have promoted their common interests and upheld international fairness and justice, writing a new chapter for China-Iran friendship.”
Xi underscored that “China supports Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national dignity as well as resisting unilateralism and hegemony, and opposes attempts by external forces to interfere in Iran’s domestic affairs and undermine its security and stability.”
The big picture comprises three key elements here: Moscow’s ‘friendship without limits’ with Beijing, Iran’s Eurasian integration, and the Russian-Iranian alliance in the making. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation provides a platform for all three countries for strengthening communication and coordination in a spirit of mutual respect and trust and jointly work on regional security issues.
Raisi’s visit will accelerate the implementation of the 25-year agreement signed in 2021 between Iran and China. The program, including energy, trade and infrastructure, faced obstacles due to the pandemic and the escalation of US sanctions. But things are on the cusp of change. China watches Russian stealing a march on it, although the latter’s 25-year agreement with Iran is still a work in progress.
To be sure, the talks in Beijing focused on how to advance practical cooperation between Iran and China, even as China is coming out of the self-imposed restrictions during the pandemic, is raring to go and is revving up the Belt and Road.
However, what is yet to sink in is that a major outcome of the confrontation between Russia and the NATO countries is that Iran is set to break through the rings of western containment through the past four decades since the 1979 revolution. Beijing sees that Russia is providing strategic depth for Iran in a win-win engagement.
Just before Raisi embarked on the state visit to Beijing, the new governor of Iran’s central bank, Mohammadreza Farzin stated in Tehran that “The financial channel between Iran and the world is being restored.” In effect, he was announcing that Iran and Russia have taken a significant step towards linking their banking infrastructures amid Western sanctions.
After years of work, the two countries have managed to connect Iran’s SEPAM national financial messaging service to Russia’s Financial Messaging System of the Bank of Russia (SPFS), the Russian equivalent of SWIFT, that aims to link with other major powers like China and India. The tie-up signifies that Moscow today has the political will to forge ahead with an optimal partnership with Iran, as they also pursue greater use of their national currencies in trade.
Moreover, Russia and Iran are creating a firewall to sequester their defence cooperation from the prying eyes of the US. Moscow is about to transfer cutting-edge military technology to Tehran, including the famous Su-35 multipurpose 4+ generation fighter jets as part of a $3 billion arms deal that also includes two S-400 air defence systems. None of this is escaping Beijing’s attention. (Interestingly, Farzin was included in Raisi’s delegation to Beijing.)
Beijing understands that the confrontation between Russia and the US is working to the advantage of two of its key partners to break out of the Western stranglehold of sanctions and realise their full potential as regional powers — North Korea and Iran — which has profound implications for the power dynamic in the Asia-Pacific and West Asia. The Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces General Mohammad Bagheri greeted the newly-appointed North Korean counterpart General Pak Su-il recently with a call for expansion of military ties “to confront any move that disrupts global security.”
China-Iran relationship is entering interesting times. Fortuitously, the Gulf states themselves are decoupling from the US-Israeli strategy to whip up anti-Iran frenzy. Meanwhile, Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia are steadily improving and the latter is developing diversified external relations as well with accent on partnerships with China and Russia. The growing similarity lately in the respective diplomatic trajectories of Iran and Saudi Arabia would have a calming effect incrementally on Gulf security and eliminates the scope for US interference in the GCC interaction with China (and Russia.)
President Xi highlighted to Raisi the importance of stability in West Asia, saying that upholding stability matters to the well-being of the countries and people in the region and also has great relevance to world peace, global economic development and the stability of energy supplies.
Xi noted in particular that “China appreciates Iran’s willingness to actively improve relations with neighbouring countries, and supports countries in the region in resolving their differences through dialogue and consultation to realise good neighbourliness.”
This paradigm shift in Gulf security puts the Sino-Iranian partnership on the right side of history.
