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Here is an estimate for ukraine. https://www.noahsnewsletter.com/p/how-many-people-have-died-in-ukraine
Russia should be 1:4 or 1:5 based on artillery ratios.
Overall, the analysis suggests that up to 188,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians may have died in the war – though this figure is likely to be an overestimate, since people who died of Covid likely had fewer friends than those who’ve died in the war
The fuck? How does that assumption track at ALL? Lmfao
You died of covid? Probably a friendless loser
But he posts the metodology and it seems ok. There is always some error. And we can never be sure in these cases but 190k seem more resonable than the 70k nato is claiming.
The methodology is completely pulled out of his ass.
There’s a lot wrong with it but the main thing is using linear regression for “do you know someone who has died of X?” This is cannot be a linear relationship. As the number of casualties goes up, the % of people who know a casualty logarithmically approaches 100%.
This means the % of people who know a casualty will rise dramatically at first, and taper off. It also means it’s not a good indicator for actual deaths.
