Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you’d get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!
Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It’s a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.
The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.
you cant predict what a single undecided is gonna do, but a swarm of them are easily predictable.
If that were true all of 538’s predictions would say 100% chance, not 60% chance. My post was agreeing with your premise btw. I’ve been downbeard on chapo dot chat for defending Nate’s statistics (while mocking his punditry).
yes, the reason it’s not 100% is cos you only know about a group of psychopaths, and only days before they cast their ballots. the way the rest of the mass is positioned and shifts is pretty chaotic and difficult to predict, the only thing not difficult to predict are the chances.
I feel like we’re talking past each other. It’s fine. I agree that odds exist and getting three heads in a row doesn’t prove that it wasn’t a 12.5% chance to happen. Correctly observing that an unlikely event is still possible isn’t proof that you’re full of shit.
