Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you’d get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!
Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It’s a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.
The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.
The thing is his odds are wrong. Trump is most likely going to win.
It might take the Supreme Court handing it to him, but he will probably win.
oh yeah, that for sure, but libs are still worried about what the elctorial college will look like
Then his odds aren’t wrong, that isn’t what the model is predicting votes. It’s predicting who gets more votes in actuality. Predicting what the recorded votes will be is a separate prediction and difficult because it’s hard to know exactly what will happen
The 538 probability clearly doesn’t factor in the SCOTUS tilting the scales in Trump’s favor. A much more useful statistic might be an estimated probability of Biden winning in such an enormous landslide that the SCOTUS couldn’t possibly ratfuck the election. Such a probability could give us an approximation of the complement of the true probability of a Trump victory.
