Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you’d get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!
Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It’s a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.
The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.
i mean, the only way to see how this stuff work is to open the box and look into the algorythm they crafted. but a) you cant, it’s his intellectual property. otherwise eveyrone would steal it. and b) you cant. it’s probably machine learning to some degree, and machine learning code is basically undeciphrable to humans without very intense study of one. still, the method he cites are usually good practice in statistical science, but i’ve had users tell me that most of it isnt actually polling data.
