The Constitutional Republic of Blackwater

In the midwest, many urban centers are very nonwhite, and will likely have some kind of liberal-pseudo independent democracy. The big thing that midwest power structures would be based around are highways. I would expect that some kind of loose city-states might form, with those states providing protection, ect for the surrounding farms. A lot of nukes are in the central north and midwest, so I would expect that some smaller states would have those weapons. Whatever happens in the midwest would have a big impact on everywhere else, and the crops and nukes would make it an enticing area for early capture by military groups.

It’ll be kinda like the collapse of the Empire in the Foundation trilogy I think. Just a gradual loss of hegemony followed by a swift turn inwards of the remaining power of empire (as the labor of the colonies begins to break free of colonial control).

As the ties to the global south begin to sever, the capitalists will start to turn inwards and the USA will consume itself. What comes out will be determined by the nature of the consumption, either some form of fascism that will mobilize the reserve labor of the core into a new, more brutal empire, or popular resistance and the proletarian revolution we were always told would happen in the developed countries. Either way, the US as we know it cannot continue to exist as it currently is.

In a less extreme scenario, California and/or Texas become de facto independent as they just ignore the federal government and their own economy is big enough to run itself. This is assuming a decline of federal power, presumably from frequent labour strikes, mass shootings, bombings and riots. The international influence of the USA declines as the president tries to keep the country from transitioning from the Troubles but in America to full blown civil war.