u/AvantAveGarde - originally from r/GenZhou
As everyone has been witnessing, the Afghani US-backed government led by ex-president Ashraf Ghani’s has collapsed in spectacular fashion. People are making comparisons to the Fall of Saigon in 1975 and Chinese forums like Guancha are taking in the sweet moment to revel in the US’ 20 year long blunder as much as they can. The era is over, and the West regrets to declare to the world that it is weaker. and They shouted “America to die” but at the same time they looked friendly, so strange (Google translated headlines).

Unsurprisingly the libs are out in full force, decrying that the country will revert into a mass-rape and Jihadist hotbed and that women will be stripped of all rights as they were in the 90s, all the while failing to acknowledge that the US is chief responsible for creating the social and material conditions in the first place. On the other hand MLs and other leftists are confused on how to take in the developing situation. On one hand US bad, but the Taliban isn’t exactly sunshine and rainbows. No need to bring up what could have been any more times than necessary.

What’s probably confusing the leftist discourse more is that the transition of power to the Taliban is unlike what the liberals on social media are screeching about. A summary of today’s press conference from the Taliban So the situation as far as we can tell is stabilizing, no mass rapes, no public beheadings and no wholesale stripping of the rights of women (so long as you’re willing to take the Taliban’s word at face value.)

To explain why this shouldn’t be as much of a shock we should look at the events leading up to the 10 day surrender of the Afghani government. Namely the diplomatic mission that the Taliban sent to meet foreign minister Wang Yi in Tianjin and the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Dushanbe the weeks prior in July.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/russia-china-advance-asian-roadmap-for-afghanistan/

https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/the-taliban-go-to-tianjin/

The SCO is working all-out to present a road map for a Kabul-Taliban political settlement in the next round of negotiations in August… It’s all about a comprehensive economic integration package, where the Belt and Road Initiative and its affiliated China-Pakistan Economic Corridor interacts with Russia’s Greater Eurasia Partnership and overall Central Asia-South Asia connectivity.

What Russia-China are investing in with the Taliban is to extract iron-clad guarantees: Don’t allow jihadis to cross Central Asian borders – especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; Fight ISIS-Khorasan head-on and don’t allow them sanctuary, as the Taliban did with al-Qaeda in the 1990s; and Be done with opium poppy cultivation (you did give it up in the early 2000s) while fighting against drug trafficking.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/07/a-saigon-moment-in-the-hindu-kush/

Unlike Think Tank Row in DC, Chinese counterparts seem to have done their homework. They understood that the USSR did not invade Afghanistan in 1979 to impose “popular democracy” – the jargon then – but was in fact invited by the quite progressive UN-recognized Kabul government at the time, which essentially wanted roads, electricity, medical care, telecommunications and education.

China is now picking up where the USSR left. Beijing, in close contact with the Taliban since early 2020, essentially wants to extend the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – one of the Belt and Road Initiative flagship projects – to Afghanistan.

I don’t want to take up too much time posting articles, but the general message is that the Taliban and the members of the SCO have been in close contact on the developing situation in Afghanistan. It not only helps explain why Chinese citizens have been evacuated since July but should also give some insight that this Taliban leading the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has potentially learned from its past mistakes and could be much different than that of the one established in 1996. The Taliban have extracted diplomatically formal recognition from the SCO members, BRI infrastructure development, regional cooperation in exchange for a (mostly) peaceful transition of power, formal distancing from terrorist groups like ETIM, and the protection of the rights of women and children (in accordance with their sharia law). This of course is subject to the developments on the ground, the Taliban could very well go back on their promises, establish a jihadist caliphate and begin a reign of terror. If that is the case expect NATO wardrums and another long period of depravity.

So what to make of this? If the Taliban hold up their promises and act on good behavior in the eyes of Beijing and Moscow, it might possibly be the beginning of reconstruction after a long 40 years of endless conflict, which I believe to be the most important goal if we’re looking to improve the material conditions of the Afghani people. The potential inclusion of Afghanistan as another node in the BRI project will have immense changes in the strengthening of regional cooperation. The promises of the end of opium production and allowing women to continue to pursue education are all good signs to this potential reality manifesting. I would suggest everyone to monitor the developing situation and try not to fall into the western anglo media with the foolhardy belief that Afghanistan would be better under US backed development. I do not believe we should acknowledge it to be an ideal situation, but at the very least it is seeming to be better than the worst.