We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.
We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).
We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.
We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don’t favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.
So here’s the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we’re looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don’t just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.
Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won’t happen?
I think if this happened blue states would just ignore the ban, sort of like marijuana prohibition
No reason it couldn’t happen though
I think that abortion is a more salient issue than marijuana, such that a Republican-controlled federal government wouldn’t let blue states just go their own way about it. Abortion is important enough that Republicans would send in federal agents to blue states to enforce a ban.
Maybe. I think that would break the country apart.
Not that it isn’t already breaking apart but that would be a speed run
Actually, now that I think about it more, they wouldn’t have to send in federal agents. They could just deny Medicare reimbursement to any hospital in a blue state that continues to provide abortion in spite of the ban.
The federal government could at any time choose to enforce federal marijuana law and go into legal states and shut shit down, there’s just been a precedent to not do that, but they’ve openly considered breaking it. Jeff Sessions as AG under Trump said he wanted to. When the right thinks abortion should be treated as literal murder, I think they’d be more than willing to enforce their new federal ban on the states. States rights are a complete smokescreen anyway, and always have been; they argue for them when it serves their goals and ignore them when it doesn’t.
When the right thinks abortion should be treated as literal murder, I think they’d be more than willing to enforce their new federal ban on the states.
It would be nice if a state would just say “fuck you, no” and set up the national guard (and refuse federalization) to protect people and clinics. That could be the proper beginning of America’s collapse, or cause the federal government to get more cautious to avoid said collapse, which means not enforcing the ban in those states.
Too bad the libs in pro-abortion states are too spineless to do anything like that.
The Federalist Society, which is the most visible contingent or ruling class libertarian ghouls who believe in rolling back the majority of power to the states, want to undo the rights abortion, gay marriage, and interracial marriage. Then they (separate but adjacent factions) want to call a constitutional convention and undo the 14th amendment among other things. They are rapidly approaching the required states to call that convention and retain control over which resolutions pass.
More info here: https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTdtxFP2p/
But you don’t need a constitutional convention for that. The only reason for a constitutional convention would be to rewrite the whole thing.
And I don’t think that would work out in their favor. The world has changed a great deal since 1783 and I think rewriting it would blow up in their faces. The first and second amendments are certainly out the door, and probably the fourth and fifth as well. The tenth would be on super shaky ground.
The court decision that legalized nationally is based on the right to privacy, which is an unenumerated right that made its way into legal precedent through Roe v Wade. Once Roe is overturned, Loving v Virginia is able to be challenged. It was explicitly mentioned in the leaked majority opinion on Roe
If loving v Virginia gets overturned (IIRC it has the same legal logic as roe) then interracial marriages immediately stop being recognized in like 17 states or something. I had plans to possibly move to one of those states for woek - those plans have evaporated over the past month. Way too big of a risk
I love how fast we went from
The Dems are going to decriminalize weed at a federal level!
to
The Dems are going to fail to protect abortion rights at any level
What a time to be alive.
At this point my crystal ball is just all blurred up. Could the GOP actually do this? Yeah, maybe. Could the country start to break apart over this? Yeah, also possible. Any of these outcomes wouldn’t surprise me but I have no idea about what’s likely anymore.
I’m of the opinion that a breakup of the US is good for the future of global communism, so I am pro that happening.
Far be it for me to assume libs have any sort of spine, but idk. I look around at the libs I know personally, and I see them genuinely worried about living in a theocracy. I see a lot of growing anger at the Religious Right and a lot of shitting on red states (I’m in a blue state). Maybe it’s not materialist feeling but it is a real feeling. And I think you have a unique situation where California / the west coast could be economically viable on its own (unlike say Vermont). Thanks to the senate and EC, libs in CA already feel like they’re getting the short end of the democratic stick (they’re not wrong, either). At some point I could see west coast libs thinking they no longer want to be a part of the same country as conservatives and they aren’t getting their fair share in the bargain. Again, not predicting that but I also wouldn’t be surprised.
Libs as they currently exist don’t have the spine. But after some brutality felt from an explicitly theocratic government I feel like the civility will drop considerably
The problem is that an independent California would see southern California annexed by Mexico. All they have to do is hold a UN-style plebiscite and presto. If Californians are OK with that (it would certainly be to Mexico’s benefit) then go for it.
If you believe abortion is murder, a system where it’s legal in north carolina and illegal in south carolina is untenable.
North Carolinians wouldn’t send their children to Clemson. South Carolinians wouldn’t send them to Chapel hill
Moving for work or commuting across states is suddenly a very big deal and companies can’t pay the premium
I’m not smart enough to know all the ways the disparity would clusterfuck a business.
