December 26th’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
December 27th’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
December 28th’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
December 30th’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
Going out with friends today and tomorrow! Next week and onwards things should return to normal and we can continue drudging through in the second year of this war.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are fairly brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. The Duran, of which he co-hosts, is where the chuddery really begins to spill out.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ Now rebranded as Battlefield Insights, they do infrequent posts on the conflict.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it’s a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of the really big pro-Russian (except when they’re being pessismistic, which is often) telegram channels focussing on the war. Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Any Western media outlet that is even vaguely liberal (and quite a few conservative ones too).
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week’s discussion post.
Update for December 26th
Events
Globally
WSWS: Study finds that COVID was the leading cause of death globally in 2021
The scale of human devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is emerging more clearly as scientists and epidemiologists pore over the available data and draw inferences where data are lacking. A major study released last week found that COVID-19 was one of the leading causes of death in 2020 and the leading cause of death in 2021 globally, ahead of even ischemic heart disease, which killed 8.9 million in 2019, and cancer, which killed 9.5 million in 2018.
The study was a follow-up on the World Health Organization (WHO) Technical Advisory Group’s May 2022 report on excess deaths associated with COVID-19. The authors estimate that global excess deaths had reached 14.83 million by the end of 2021, a figure 2.74 times higher that the 5.42 million reported deaths due to COVID-19 for the period.
Reuters: Saudi ends higher on oil prices; most Gulf markets in red
Oil prices settled about $3 per barrel higher on Friday for a second straight week of gains after Moscow said it could cut crude output in response to the G7 imposing a price cap on Russian exports.
Europe
TeleSUR: Over 74 Pct of Russians Approve of Putin: Poll
RT: Leaving Russia cost Western IT-firms billions – ministry
Foreign information technology (IT) companies that have left the Russian market following Western sanctions this year lost roughly $10 billion in profits, the head of Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media, Maksut Shadaev, said on Tuesday.
RT: Russia explains potential oil output cut
Russia will halt oil supplies to nations that impose a price cap on its crude exports, the country’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, said on Sunday. He also admitted the possibility of cuts to production.
The minister said that Russia would seek new markets and logistics solutions even if they are more expensive.
TeleSUR: Putin Lauds Russia’s Economy Performance Amid Economic Warfare
Referring to macroeconomic indicators and GDP volume, Putin told the press that “Russia demonstrates much better results than many G20 countries, and consistently proves it.”
RT: Russia keeps amassing forex reserves
TeleSUR: EU Should Re-examine Green Transition Plans, Says Energy Expert
The European Union (EU) will have to re-examine its commitment to cut the use of fossil fuels by 30 percent and reach a target of producing 40 percent of energy from renewable sources by 2030, Charles Ellinas, an energy expert with a long international experience in hydrocarbons, said.
TeleSUR: Cost-of-Living Crisis Casts Shadow Over Christmas in Europe
With the year-end holidays just around the corner, the pre-Christmas shopping frenzy is quieter than usual across Europe, as the soaring prices of energy and food have taken a heavy toll on consumer confidence, disrupting people’s spending plans.
WSWS: Plant closures and mass layoffs in Germany continue at Christmas
TeleSUR: Swedish Government Expects Recession To Last Until 2025
Inflation is expected to reach an average of 8.9 percent in 2023, and combined with the rapidly increasing interest rates and the weakened demand in the rest of the world, this is expected to lead to GDP shrinking by 0.7 percent next year – a downward adjustment from the previous forecast.
Euro News: Free dinners and healthcare for Poland’s homeless and needy this Christmas
Volunteers in the Polish city of Krakow have served some 50,000 free Christmas dinners to the homeless and needy.
Common Dreams: Will Britain’s Migrant Deportation Plan Get Off the Ground?
In spite of the court’s green-lighting of the plan, there is currently no airline willing to carry asylum seekers to Rwanda, with the last company pulling out following pressure from activists. Having already spent £120 million on the deportation scheme, the coming year will see the British government wrangle new ways to make the plan – and its effort to reduce migrant numbers – a success.
East Asia and Oceania
RT: China responds to US ‘provocation’
The colonel called the drills “a resolute response to the escalating collusion and provocation by the United States and Taiwan,” adding that the PLA would take “all necessary measures” to defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Chinese officials did not reveal the nature of the alleged US “provocation,” but the drills took place just two days after President Joe Biden signed the 2023 US National Defense Authorization Act into law. America’s military budget for fiscal year 2023 authorizes $10 billion in security assistance and fast-tracked weapons procurement for Taiwan.
Al Jazeera: China defends Ukraine war stance, aims to deepen ties with Russia
Yahoo: China’s Zhejiang has 1 million daily COVID cases, expected to double
China’s Zhejiang, a big industrial province near Shanghai, is battling around a million new daily COVID-19 infections, a number expected to double in the days ahead, the provincial government said on Sunday.
SCMP: Japan defence stance sours mood ahead of foreign minister’s China trip
Despite the schism on security and geopolitical issues, the first Xi-Kishida meeting in three years rekindled hopes for a detente between the two countries.
But last week’s unveiling of Japan’s biggest military build-up since World War II and Tokyo’s framing of China as an “unprecedented strategic challenge” have soured the mood – and could set the Asian rivals on a collision course over the next decade, pundits have warned.
Central Asia and the Middle East
Iraqi News: Thousands rally in Nagorno-Karabakh to protest land blockade
MEMO: Turkiye: Over 15M tons of grain exported from Ukraine
More than 15 million tons of grain have been carried by hundreds of ships via the Black Sea grain under the Istanbul grain export deal, a Turkish minister said on Sunday, Anadolu reports.
RT: Israel grounds top-notch US fighter jets
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has decided to ground 11 of its F-35A fighter jets on Sunday, following an incident in Texas last week that saw a US Air Force F-35B Lightning II crash during an attempted landing.
“From the findings and the information transmitted, it was found that these planes require a dedicated inspection in order to rule out the possibility of a repeated malfunction in the Israeli system,” an IDF spokesperson told the media.
RT: West holds Iranian military drones in high regard – top general
By making allegations that Russia is using Iranian-made military drones in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, the West has basically acknowledged the effectiveness of Iranian technology, Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri argues. The military official insists, however, that the claims are spurious, describing them as “part of the enemy’s psychological warfare.”
Multipolarista: UN experts: US sanctions violate Iranians’ human rights
Top United Nations experts wrote a letter to the United States government, emphasizing that its illegal unilateral sanctions on Iran violate the human rights of the Iranian people, calling for them to “be eased or lifted completely.”
The suffering is the point.
Africa
TeleSUR: Severe Drought in Horn of Africa Affects 20.2 Million Children
SCMP: How the political seeds of China’s growing Africa ties were planted long ago
North America
TeleSUR: US Midwest Slapped by Record Cold Before Christmas
On Thursday, a massive Arctic front stretched from West to East some 3,200 kilometers, from Portland to Chicago, and North to South from Fargo to Dallas, a 1,700-km distance.
WSWS: Colorado River crisis accelerates as water use negotiations stall
The Colorado River Water Users Association (CRWUA) concluded its annual convention last week in Las Vegas, Nevada, amid a severe crisis facing the water supply in the American Southwest. The Colorado River Basin, which supplies water to 40 million people and hundreds-of-thousands of acres of farmland, is suffering through a more than 20 year “mega-drought,” the worst in 1,200 years.
TeleSUR: US National Defense Act Includes Ukraine, Taiwan, and Ecuador
WSWS: USW forces through wage concessions at US Steel after isolating workers for months
On Tuesday afternoon, the United Steelworkers union (USW) announced that a four-year sellout contract for 11,000 workers at facilities owned by US Steel was ratified. The contract includes wage concessions and no tangible protections for jobs and safety for workers. The union bureaucracy claims that the contract was “overwhelmingly” ratified by members but has yet to release vote totals.
South America
Monthly Review: As New Cold War ramps up, Cuba and Russia fortify historic geo-political alliance
On November 22, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin and offered a defense of the Russian war in Ukraine, accusing NATO of encroaching on Russia’s borders with its actions.
The two leaders in turn pledged to deepen bilateral relations—at a time when a declining U.S. empire is threatening a hot war with Russia while tightening its embargo on Cuba.
TeleSUR: Social Organizations Reject State of Exception in El Salvador
TeleSUR: Brazil’s Economy To Face Major Hurdles in 2023, Say Experts
Brazil’s economy will face major challenges in 2023, including an uncertain global landscape, raging inflation and staggering economic recovery, while President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration grapples with its first year in office, experts have said.
TeleSUR: Bolivian President Highlights the Country’s Economic Stability
During the launching ceremony of the Storage Capacity Increase Project at the Palmasola Plant, in the department of Santa Cruz, Arce referred to the favorable standards of the Bolivian economy, stating that the country expects to break export records this year.
The Ukraine Proxy Conflict
Responsible Statecraft: New Ukraine aid is a go — and it’s more than most states get in a year
TeleSUR: US Spent Months Arranging Zelensky Visit to Prolong War
The idea of inviting Zelensky for an in-person speech to members of the U.S. Congress had been floated by the outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as early as October at a summit in Zagreb, Croatia. Meanwhile, officials in the Biden administration have for the last several months been discussing with their Ukraine the feasibility of a White House visit by Zelensky.
GrayZone: Zelensky’s diaspora delegation led by economic hit-woman who led plunder of Ukraine
The Grayzone intercepted Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukrainian diaspora delegation outside the US Capitol and encountered Natalie Jaresko, the corporate operative who helped guide Wall Street’s pillaging from Kiev to Puerto Rico. Jaresko indignantly justified Zelensky’s banning of his political rivals as a necessary wartime measure.
RT: Majority of Germans against sending tanks to Ukraine – poll
In its report on Sunday, media outlet Das Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), citing a YouGov survey, said 45% of respondents opposed the shipment of Leopard 2 tanks to the eastern European country, while another 33% spoke in favor of the transfer, with the remaining 22% undecided.
Analysis
Retrospectives, History, and Theory
Jacobin: Many Have Tried to Kill Santa. None Have Succeeded.
…until, one fateful day in 2022…
Jacobin: Eugene V. Debs on the 1914 Christmas Truce
Jacobin: Guinea-Bissau’s Liberation Struggle Transformed the Face of World Politics
A movement led by Amílcar Cabral fought against Portuguese rule in Guinea-Bissau and won independence against seemingly overwhelming odds. It also contributed to the end of white-settler rule in Southern Africa and the democratic revolution in Portugal itself.
Jacobin: The Taiwanese Left Was Once Rooted in the Radical Labor Movement
In the 1920s, Taiwan had a radical anti-colonial movement similar to those in other parts of the colonized world — and central to it was a powerful organized labor movement. Today, with a weak and divided left, that memory needs to be recovered.
Monthly Review: Our survival depends on a world without billionaires
A recent report from Oxfam entitled “Carbon Billionaires: The Investment Emissions of the World’s Richest People” points the finger at the wealthiest individuals for causing and continuing to fuel climate change through not only their individual carbon footprints but more importantly their investments in polluting industries. The study looks at the impact of 125 of the richest billionaires globally, whose carbon emissions equal those of France, or 67 million people, and shows that just the richest 10 of those individuals own more wealth than the poorest 40% of humanity. The average billionaire in the study is responsible for carbon emissions over one million times higher than the average person in the bottom 90% of humanity.
The Left and the Right
Monthly Review: The moral panic around drag makes even less sense in the UK’s pantomime season
The moral panic around drag queens currently sweeping America has arrived in Britain. Conservative and homo/transphobic reactionaries are working themselves into a froth around the idea of (usually, not necessarily) a man in a dress entertaining children. The problem? It makes zero sense in a country with a proud tradition of… a man in a dress entertaining children. Of course, there’s no way a bigot would let a little cognitive dissonance stop them.
Inside the Imperial Core
Naked Capitalism: NATO’s Ghosts of the Past Return in Kosovo-Serbia
As Russia grinds down NATO proxy forces in Ukraine, the West is turning its ire against the one country in Europe not to join sanctions against Moscow. Washington and Brussels have had enough of Serbia playing nice with Russia and are now pushing a conflict to punish Belgrade.
The emerging conflict, coming amid the ongoing NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, brings full circle nearly a quarter century of NATO bellicosity that began with its 1999 bombing of Serbia, which confirmed to Moscow that it was an aggressive alliance determined to expand.
Outside the Imperial Core
Jacobin: Central Bank Capitalism Is Forcing the Global South Into a Debt Crisis
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are withdrawing money from markets in the name of fighting inflation. But the move is aggravating the pressures of debt on the Global South — and pushing states toward ruinous austerity measures.
Monthly Review: Why Chinese ‘debt trap diplomacy’ is a lie
Generally, there are three problems with this “debt trap diplomacy” myth.
The first problem is that this myth assumes China unilaterally dictates Belt and Road Initiative projects to lure other countries into taking on these predatory loans. In reality, Chinese development financing is largely recipient-driven through bilateral interactions and deals. Infrastructure projects are determined by the recipient country, not China, based on their own economic and political interests.
The second problem with the narrative is that it relies on the assumption that it is Chinese policy to advance predatory loans with onerous terms and conditions to ensnare countries into debt. In reality, China often advances loans at fairly low interest rates, and is often willing to restructure the terms of existing loans to be more favorable to the borrowing country, or even forgive loans altogether. In fact, in August of 2022, the Chinese government announced it was forgiving 23 interest-free loans in 17 African countries. Prior to that, between 2000 and 2019, China had also restructured a total of $15 billion of debt and forgiven $3.4 billion in loans they had given to African countries.
And lastly, the third problem with this debt trap diplomacy narrative is that despite what it claims, China has never seized an asset because a country defaulted on a loan.
Monthly Review: South Africans are fighting for crumbs: A conversation with trade union Leader Irvin Jim
In mid-December, the African National Congress (ANC) held its national conference where South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa was reelected as leader of his party, which means that he will lead the ANC into the 2024 general elections. A few delegates at the Johannesburg Expo Center in Nasrec, Gauteng—where the party conference was held—shouted at Ramaphosa asking him to resign because of a scandal called Farmgate (Ramaphosa survived a parliamentary vote against his impeachment following the scandal).
Climate Change
Guardian: Can geoengineering fix the climate? Hundreds of scientists say not so fast
As global heating escalates, the US government has set out a plan to further study the controversial and seemingly sci-fi notion of deflecting the sun’s rays before they hit Earth. But a growing group of scientists denounces any steps towards what is known as solar geoengineering.
The White House has set into motion a five-year outline for research into “climate interventions”. Those include methods such as sending a phalanx of planes to spray reflective particles into the upper reaches of the atmosphere, in order to block incoming sunlight from adding to rising temperatures.
Inside Climate News: Why Chinese Aluminum Producers Emit So Much of Some of the World’s Most Damaging Greenhouse Gases
More than half of the aluminum in the world is produced in China, but it is responsible for 81 percent of the industry’s emissions of PFCs. Simple automation could go a long way toward cutting them.
I Love My Trans Comrades!
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has decided to ground 11 of its F-35A fighter jets on Sunday, following an incident in Texas last week that saw a US Air Force F-35B Lightning II crash during an attempted landing.
Huh, wasn’t that crash a failed VTOL issue? I’m pretty sure the F-35A doesn’t even have that capability. Unless there was another crash recently, which given the track record of that shitty plane is ofc totally possible
Only the B has that capability iirc and only then since it’s the version made for the USMC because:
- Needs it for the shorter “helicopter carriers”
- Dreams of using it in hastily constructed temporary airfields in the South China Sea
also because the UK wants to replace the Harrier (which they already got rid of before lining up a replacement).
As is tradition, our boy M.K. Bhadrakumar starts us off this week.
Are there some officials in Germany who aren’t willing to keep licking Biden’s boots, especially after he blew up their pipeline? Perhaps, this post suggests. We’ll see in the coming months and years if they’re successful.
A German-China-Russia triangle on Ukraine
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken probably thought that in his self-appointed role as the world’s policeman, it was his prerogative to check out what is going on between Germany, China and Russia that he wasn’t privy to. Certainly, Blinken’s call to Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday turned out to be a fiasco.
Most certainly, his intention was to gather details on two high-level exchanges that Chinese President Xi Jinping had on successive days last week — with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and the Chairman of the United Russia Party and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev respectively.
Blinken made an intelligent guess that Steinmeier’s phone call to Xi on Tuesday and Medvedev’s surprise visit to Beijing and his meeting with Xi on Wednesday might not have been coincidental. Medvedev’s mission would have been to transmit some highly sensitive message from Putin to Xi Jinping. Only last week, reports said Moscow and Beijing were working on a meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping later this month.
Steinmeier is an experienced diplomat who held the post of foreign minister from 2005 to 2009 and again from 2013 to 2017, as well as of Vice Chancellor of Germany from 2007 to 2009 — and all of it during the period Angela Merkel was the German chancellor (2005- 2021). Merkel left a legacy of surge in Germany’s relations with both Russia and China.
Steinmeier is a senior politician belonging to the Social Democratic Party — same as present chancellor Olaf Scholz. It is certain that Steinmeier’s call with Xi was in consultation with Scholz. This is one thing.
Most importantly, Steinmeier had played a seminal role in negotiating the two Minsk Agreements (2014 and 2015), which provided for a package of measures to stop the fighting in Donbass in the downstream of the US-sponsored coup in Kiev.
When the Minsk agreements began unravelling by 2016, Steinmeier stepped in with an ingenious idea that later came to be known as the Steinmeier Formula spelling out the sequencing of events spelt out in the agreements.
Specifically, the Steinmeier formula called for elections to be held in the separatist-held territories of Donbass under Ukrainian legislation and the supervision of the OSCE. It proposed that if the OSCE judged the balloting to be free and fair, then a special self-governing status for the territories would be initiated.
Of course, all that is history today. Merkel “confessed” recently in an interview with Zeit newspaper that in reality, the Minsk agreement was a western attempt to buy “invaluable time” for Kiev to rearm itself.
Given this complex backdrop, Blinken would have sensed something was amiss when Steinmeier had a call with Xi Jinping out of the blue, and Medvedev made a sudden appearance in Beijing the next day and was received by the Chinese president. Notably, Beijing’s readouts were rather upbeat on China’s relationship with Germany and Russia.
Xi Jinping put forward a three-point proposal to Steinmeier on the development of China-Germany relations and stated that “China and Germany have always been partners of dialogue, development, and cooperation as well as partners for addressing global challenges.”
Similarly, in the meeting with Medvedev, he underscored that “China is ready to work with Russia to constantly push forward China-Russia relations in the new era and make global governance more just and equitable.”
Both readouts mentioned Ukraine as a topic of discussion, with Xi stressing that “China stays committed to promoting peace talks” (to Steinmeier) and “actively promoted peace talks” (to Medvedev).
But Blinken went about his mission clumsily by bringing to the fore the contentious US-China issues, especially “the current COVID-19 situation” in China and “the importance of transparency for the international community.” It comes as no surprise that Wang Yi gave a stern lecturing to Blinken not to “engage in dialogue and containment at the same time”, or to “talk cooperation, but stab China simultaneously”.
Wang Yi said, “This is not reasonable competition, but irrational suppression. It is not meant to properly manage disputes, but to intensify conflicts. In fact, it is still the old practice of unilateral bullying. This did not work for China in the past, nor will it work in the future.”
Specifically, on Ukraine, Wang Yi said, “China has always stood on the side of peace, of the purposes of the UN Charter, and of the international society to promote peace and talks. China will continue to play a constructive role in resolving the crisis in China’s own way.” From the US state department readout, Blinken failed to engage Wang Yi in a meaningful conversation on Ukraine.
Indeed, Germany’s recent overtures to Beijing in quick succession — Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s high-profile visit to China last month with a delegation of top German CEOs and Steinmeier’s phone call last week — have not gone down well in the Beltway.
The Biden Administration expects Germany to coordinate with Washington first instead of taking own initiatives toward China. (Interestingly, Xi Jinping underscored the importance of Germany preserving its strategic autonomy.)
The current pro-American foreign minister of Germany Annalena Baerbock distanced herself from Chancellor Scholz’s China visit. Evidently, Steinmeier’s phone call to Xi confirms that Scholz is moving according to a plan to pursue a path of constructive engagement with China, as Merkel did, no matter the state of play in the US’ tense relationship with China.
That said, discussing peacemaking in Ukraine with China is a daring move on the part of the German leadership at the present juncture when the Biden Administration is deeply engaged in a proxy war with Russia and has every intention to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
But there is another side to it. Germany has been internalising its anger and humiliation during the past several months. Germany cannot but feel that it has been played in the countdown to the Ukraine conflict — something particularly galling for a country that is genuinely Atlanticist in its foreign-policy orientation.
German ministers have expressed displeasure publicly that American oil companies are brazenly exploiting the ensuing energy crisis to make windfall profits by selling gas at three to four times the domestic price in the US. Germany also fears that Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act building on foundational climate and clean energy investments may lead to the migration of German industry to America.
The unkindest cut of all has been the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Germany must be having a fairly good idea as to the forces that were behind that terrorist act, but it cannot even call them out and must suppress its sense of humiliation and indignation. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines makes a revival of German-Russian relationship an extremely tortuous affair. For any nation with a proud history, it is a bit too much to accept being pushed around like a pawn.
Scholz and Steinmeier are seasoned politicians and would know when to dig in and hunker down. In any case, China is a crucially important partner for Germany’s economic recovery. Germany can ill afford to let the US destroy its partnership with China also, and reduce it to a vassal state.
When it comes to Ukraine war, Germany becomes a frontline state but it is Washington that determines the western tactic and strategy. Germany estimates that China is uniquely placed to be a peacemaker in Ukraine. The signs are that Beijing is warming up to that idea too.
In addition, Bhadrakumar’s post yesterday, in which he argues that Putin has set up a zugzwang for America in this conflict (a term originating in chess that refers to when you engineer a position such that your opponent can only play moves that weaken them), and that Biden knows that Putin has done this.
Although it has been at times incredibly frustrating and slow-paced, Russia has routinely refused to take the bait over the course of this conflict. Slow and steady does in fact seem to win the race.
The only problem is that America may decide, in its’ desperation, to ‘flip the board’.
Ukraine war tolls death knell for NATO
The defining moment in US President Joe Biden’s press conference at the White House last Wednesday, during President Zelensky’s visit, was his virtual admission that he is constrained in the proxy war in Ukraine, as European allies don’t want a war with Russia.
To quote Biden, “Now, you say, ‘Why don’t we just give Ukraine everything there is to give?’ Well, for two reasons. One, there’s an entire Alliance that is critical to stay with Ukraine. And the idea that we would give Ukraine material that is fundamentally different than is already going there would have a prospect of breaking up NATO and breaking up the European Union and the rest of the world… I’ve spent several hundred hours face-to-face with our European allies and the heads of state of those countries, and making the case as to why it was overwhelmingly in their interest that they continue to support Ukraine… They understand it fully, but they’re not looking to go to war with Russia. They’re not looking for a third World War.”
Biden realised at that point that “I probably already said too much” and abruptly ended the press conference. He probably forgot that he was dwelling on the fragility of Western unity.
The whole point is that the western commentariat largely forgets that Russia’s core agenda is not about territorial conquest — much as Ukraine is vital to Russian interests — but about NATO expansion. And that has not changed.
Every now and then President Putin revisits the fundamental theme that the US consistently aimed to weaken and dismember Russia. As recently as last Wednesday, Putin invoked the Chechen war in the 1990s — “the use of international terrorists in the Caucasus, to finish off Russia and to split the Russian Federation… They [US] claimed to condemn al-Qaeda and other criminals, yet they considered using them on the territory of Russia as acceptable and provided all kinds of assistance to them, including material, information, political and any other support, notably military support, to encourage them to continue fighting against Russia.”
Putin has a phenomenal memory and would have been alluding to Biden’s careful choice of William Burns as his CIA chief. Burns was Moscow Embassy’s point person for Chechnya in the 1990s! Putin has now ordered a nation-wide campaign to root out the vast tentacles that the US intelligence planted on Russian soil for internal subversion. Carnegie, once headed by Burns, has since shut down its Moscow office, and the Russian staff fled to the West!
The leitmotif of the expanded meeting of the Board of the Defence Ministry in Moscow on Wednesday, which Putin addressed, was the profound reality that Russia’s confrontation with the US is not going to end with Ukraine war. Putin exhorted the Russian top brass to “carefully analyse” the lessons of Ukraine and Syrian conflicts.
Importantly, Putin said, “We will continue maintaining and improving the combat readiness of the nuclear triad. It is the main guarantee that our sovereignty and territorial integrity, strategic parity and the general balance of forces in the world are preserved. This year, the level of modern armaments in the strategic nuclear forces has already exceeded 91 percent. We continue rearming the regiments of our strategic missile forces with modern missile systems with Avangard hypersonic warheads.”
Equally, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed at Wednesday’s meeting a military build-up “to bolster Russia’s security,” including:
Creation of a corresponding group of forces in Russia’s northwest to counter Finland and Sweden’s induction as NATO members;
Creation of two new motorised infantry divisions in the Kherson and Zaporozhya regions, as well as an army corps in Karelia, facing Finnish border;
Upgrade of 7 motorised infantry brigades into motorised infantry divisions in the Western, Central and Eastern military districts, and in the Northern Fleet;
Addition of two more air assault divisions in the Airborne Forces;
Provision of a composite aviation division and an army aviation brigade with 80-100 combat helicopters within each combined arms (tank) army;
Creation of 3 additional air division commands, eight bomber aviation regiments, one fighter aviation regiment, and six army aviation brigades;
Creation of 5 district artillery divisions, as well as super-heavy artillery brigades for building artillery reserves along the so-called strategic axis;
Creation of 5 naval infantry brigades for the Navy’s coastal troops based on the existing naval infantry brigades;
Increase in the size of the Armed Forces to 1.5 million service personnel, with 695,000 people serving under contract.
Putin summed up: “We will not repeat the mistakes of the past… We are not going to militarise our country or militarise the economy… and we will not do things we do not really need, to the detriment of our people and the economy, the social sphere. We will improve the Russian Armed Forces and the entire military component. We will do it calmly, routinely and consistently, without haste.”
If the neocons in the driving seat in the Beltway wanted an arms race, they have it now. The paradox, however, is that this is going to be different from the bipolar Cold War era arms race.
If the US intention was to weaken Russia before confronting China, things aren’t working that way. Instead, the US is getting locked into a confrontation with Russia and the ties between the two big powers are at a breaking point. Russia expects the US to roll back NATO’s expansion, as promised to the Soviet leadership in 1989.
The neocons had expected a “win-win” in Ukraine: Russian defeat and a disgraceful end to Putin presidency; a weakened Russia, as in the 1990s, groping for a new start; consolidation of western unity under a triumphant America; a massive boost in the upcoming struggle with China for supremacy in the world order; and a New American Century under the “rules-based world order”.
But instead, this is turning out to be a classic Zugzwang in the endgame — to borrow from German chess literature — where the US is under obligation to make a move on Ukraine but whichever move it makes will only worsen its geopolitical position.
Biden has understood that Russia cannot be defeated in Ukraine; nor are Russian people in any mood for an insurrection. Putin’s popularity is soaring high, as Russian objectives in Ukraine are being steadily realised. Thus, Biden is getting a vague sense, perhaps, that Russia isn’t exactly seeing things in Ukraine as a binary of victory and defeat, but is gearing up for the long haul to sort out NATO once and for all.
The transformation of Belarus as a “nuclear-capable” state carries a profound message from Moscow to Brussels and Washington. Biden cannot miss it. (See my blog NATO nuclear compass rendered unavailing, Indian Punchline, Dec. 21, 2022
Logically, the option open to the US at this point would be to disengage. But that becomes an abject admission of defeat and will mean the death knell for the NATO, and Washington’s transatlantic leadership goes kaput. And, worse still, major west European powers — Germany, France and Italy — may start looking for a modus vivendi with Russia. Above all, how can NATO possibly survive without an “enemy”?
Clearly, neither the US nor its allies are in a position to fight a continental war. But even if they are, what about the emerging scenario in the Asia-Pacific, where the “no limits” partnership between China and Russia has added an intriguing layer in the geopolitics?
The neocons in the Beltway have bitten more than what they could chew. Their last card will be to push for a direct US military intervention in the Ukraine war under the banner of a “coalition of the willing.”
I think this is where both Russia and China show their long term strategic thinking. Both know that Europe is the key. Europe has always been the key in this whole conflict. If they manage to pry Europe away from the US sphere of influence, then the US is done for - it will become truly isolated in the entire world.
Of course, Europe is not going to do that willingly, but they can be forcefully nudged towards, given the dual pronged strategy of energy crisis with Russia and the incentives from China.
And I think this is the piece missing when we were trying to figure out why on earth Putin wasn’t just cutting off all gas to Europe immediately once they cut Russia off from SWIFT and seized their bank reserves.
We’re in the odd position now where Russia actually doesn’t want Europe to collapse, whereas the United States does. And Putin saw this in advance, saw that America was going to feast on Europe’s corpse to strengthen itself at the cost of its wider empire, and now Russia has to try and keep Europe alive. It’s like geopolitical brain surgery; remove the tumor (NATO) and hope you save the patient (Europe) so they can be on your side. But it’s very risky.
It’s a little heartening to see that Macron and Scholz and so on at least have some survival instincts, but whether that’ll be enough really remains to be seen. Unless there’s a major political shift in the UK, I see them going down with the ship the whole way, saluting to America as they sink beneath the waves. But perhaps Germany and France and a few others like Italy will at least attempt to fight back.
Russia says U.S. intelligence services, pharmaceutical companies involved in military bio program in Ukraine
The Russian Defense Ministry has a document with the names of key U.S. officials supervising Ukraine’s military biological programs, Igor Kirillov, chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, said Saturday.
http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2022-12/26/content_10207583.htm
what is Umbrella Corp is not a more war industry focused Amazon? Horror Vanguard pod has covered that terrible movie series extensively
ever since it came out that there were biological warfare labs in ukraine i have been lathing that they end up getting captured and the russians release undeniable proof that the US started the covid pandemic
from a dramatic storytelling perspective on reality it would be perfect
Apparently some DPRK drones flew over the border and into the outskirts of Seoul.
Two South Korean aircraft went to intercept and bravely crashed to the ground.
From Slavangrad:
Yonhap reports that one North Korean drone returned to North Korea, while four others disappeared from the South Korean military’s radar, so none of the five unmanned aerial vehicles(UAV) were shot down, although the South Korean military fired about 100 shots at them.
How the fuck is western military equipment this shitty?
In other drone news, Ukraine has once again sent a drone towards Engels airbase, where some of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is kept. It was once again shot down.
We’ve had some additional information on these drones in the meantime and it turns out that while they’re based on some fairly old drones, the West has been hard at work modifying them to make them incredibly difficult to detect and shoot down, though Russia does possess the technology to do so (and has done so, at least twice). So my previous comment a few weeks ago about how this was a big failure of Russian anti-air was technically true but a little overblown, as these drones have been modified and designed over the course of the last year to do exactly this, taking into account what NATO knows about Russia’s air defense. As the Russian government puts more funding into its military (as one of the Bhadrakumar articles I put in this thread mentions), I imagine they’ll figure something out.
People have pointed out that this is essentially equivalent to Russia modifying drones to fire into American nuclear bases from Cuba. I’m sure Posadas would be happy to know he has so many followers in NATO command. But Russia refuses to take the bait, which must really piss off Volodymyr “Russia fired a missile at that Polish tractor and NATO should invade!” Zelensky.
How the fuck is western military equipment this shitty?
Thirty years of focusing on murdering shepherds and imagining there is no such thing as a peer competitor coming home to roost, lol
How the fuck is western military equipment this shitty?
I wonder if this is another example of old tech vs new tech being weird. Like, there’s some story about old slow moving prop fighter planes not being able to be tracked by some early generation radar controlled anti air guns because the planes moved slower than the system’s lowest trackable speed.
The example of the slow prop planes being unable to be tracked originates from the sinking of the Bismarck.
How I understand it wasn’t radar but a more old fashioned fire control system which was unable to track the slow as balls Fairey Swordfishes on their attack runs. Explanations I have seen were that the fire control system wasn’t fully working, that they just didn’t hit anything because the ship was moving wildly to try and dodge torpedoes aaand that the planes were so slow they just not designed with something that ancient in mind.
my favorite source says peace is coming:
Putin explicitly sees Merkel saying “Yeah, we only made peace to buy time for Ukraine to rearm, that was the whole point of it” and then sees America, running out of weapons to send Ukraine, going “Yo, wanna make a peace deal?” Putin’s a fairly merciful dude compared to many other Russian hardliners but I can’t imagine even him being that naive.
Especially considering that WaPo or NYT or whatever piece a month or two ago that was like “Blinken is going to tell Zelensky to pretend to be open for peace just so Ukraine’s European allies feel better about supporting the war; don’t worry guys, Ukraine isn’t actually going to make peace” This just feels like an extension of that.
I do think it’s very plausible that America is trying to find a way to exit this war now that their main goal has been achieved (steal Europe’s industry, keep Germany down and Russia out, destroy all of Europe’s old equipment and force them to buy their shitty overpriced planes to keep US’s MIC full of cash) and they wanna pivot ASAP to China but if Putin lets them do that then that’s a major diplomatic failure on his behalf even if America says that he can keep the entire territory of all four oblasts. He’s got Biden caught in his jaws and he shouldn’t let go.
So my tentative conclusion is that America is beginning to freak out about what this war has done and is doing to the geopolitical situation around the world and wants out while they still have some winnings to take home, and also sees the upcoming Russian winter and spring offensives, and is trying to negotiate. And I think it would be idiotic to the point of harming his entire position for Putin to negotiate now, when the Russian army is literally gearing up to take the remaining territory they want over the next year, unless the terms are amazing (like, they also get Odessa and Mykolaiv and some kind of solid security guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and no more military equipment can be sent there). Not only that, but Putin now has a very plausible reason to explain to his allies why he isn’t negotiating now that Merkel fucked up and said what she said.
