Image is of Wang Yi, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, delivering a speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2023.
China has put forward a quite general peace proposal, which I imagine is both for Ukraine and also meant to be a general guide for solving conflicts in the future, with 12 points. Unfortunately it has no lobsters, nor dragons of chaos.
These 12 points are, as follows: respect the sovereignty of all countries and all countries are equal; abandon Cold War mentalities; cease hostilities; resume peace talks; resolve humanitarian crises; protect civilians and POWs; keep nuclear power plants safe (what a jab!); reduce strategic risks (that is, nuclear war); facilitate grain exports; stop unilateral sanctions; keep industrial and supply chains stable - the economy is not a weapon; and promote post-conflict reconstruction.
TeleSUR goes into more depth on each point for those interested.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we’ve collected.
February 27th’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
February 28th’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
March 1st’s update is here on the site and here in the comments.
March 3rd’s update is here in the comments.
March 4th’s update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
American anti-war rally on March 18th by left groups!
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are fairly brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. The Duran, of which he co-hosts, is where the chuddery really begins to spill out.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ Now rebranded as Battlefield Insights, they do infrequent posts on the conflict.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it’s a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of the really big pro-Russian (except when they’re being pessismistic, which is often) telegram channels focussing on the war. Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Any Western media outlet that is even vaguely liberal (and quite a few conservative ones too).
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week’s discussion post.
I’m poosting
Update for February 27th
Events
Europe
TeleSUR: Europe’s Energy Crisis Likely To Stay, Warn Analysts
People’s Daily: EU agrees on 10th package of sanctions against Russia
People’s Daily: Ukraine crisis brings EU’s strategic autonomy back into spotlight
Open Democracy: What the SNP leadership race says about the party’s post-Sturgeon future
Open Democracy: Government is ‘monitoring’ human rights lawyers, minister admits
Immigration minister Robert Jenrick made the extraordinary statement during a debate in Parliament on Monday about far-right protests in Liverpool, after claiming that human right lawyers “exploit and abuse our laws”.
Open Democracy: Home Office paying asylum seekers £1 an hour to clean detention centres
People’s Daily: Germany mum on Nord Stream explosions amid U.S. sabotage claims
Keep that tongue on that boot.
TeleSUR: German Inflation Rises to 8.7 Pct in January: Destatis
German inflation picked up again slightly to 8.7 percent in January after declining for two months, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said on Wednesday. Energy and food continued to be the main price drivers.
Despite government relief measures, including a price cap for electricity, natural gas and district heating, overall energy prices in Germany in January were still up 23.1 percent year-on-year, according to Destatis.
That’s so weird!
East Asia and Oceania
Monthly Review: U.S. sends troops to Taiwan after general threatens war with China by 2025
WSWS: Amid mounting mass protests against IMF austerity, Sri Lanka’s autocratic president cancels local elections
Central Asia and the Middle East
TeleSUR: Türkiye Delivers Policy Rate Cut Amid Earthquake Recovery
People’s Daily: Erdogan holds phone talks with Russian, Ukrainian presidents
Monthly Review: Syria just suffered a devastating earthquake but Israeli bombing does not stop
MEE: ‘Earthquake diplomacy’: Assad’s regional isolation diminishes following Oman visit
Taking full advantage of a natural disaster, the Syrian president presses his advantage in his second regional visit in 12 years
TeleSUR: Palestinians Go on General Strike to Reject the Nablus Massacre
MEE: Israeli currency falls to three-year low as judicial reforms edge closer
WSWS: Banks burn in Lebanon amid collapse of state institutions
Lebanese banks were set aflame last week as the country’s increasingly desperate people took to the streets of Beirut in protest as the Lebanese pound fell to a new all-time low of 80,000 against the dollar. This came amid bank strikes and the government’s failure to take any measures to alleviate the long-running economic crisis.
MEE: US judge rules Afghan central bank assets cannot be awarded to 9/11 victims
TeleSUR: Earthquake of Magnitude 6.8 Strikes Eastern Tajikistan
“Little or no population” will be exposed to landslides from the quake, the USGS said, adding that the epicenter appeared to be located in Upper Badakhshan, a province bordering Afghanistan and China.
Africa
MEE: African Union condemns ‘racial statements’ from Tunisian president
The African Union on Saturday condemned comments by the Tunisian President Kais Saied suggesting people from sub-Saharan Africa in the country were linked to criminality.
Open Democracy: How migrants are changing the male face of Ghana’s gold mines
I work with the MIDEQ (‘Migration for Development & Equality’) project, and our research shows that women are migrating independently between countries in the Global South and doing male-dominated work such as mining and construction. It is evident that Chinese women are moving to Ghana for better job opportunities in mining – challenging the assumption that mining is for men.
Africa News: Algeria dissolves pro-democracy group amid wider crackdown
Africa News: Deadly Chad protests: death toll now estimated at 128
On October 20, 2022, opposition demonstrations against the continuation in power for two more years of the transitional president, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, had been repressed in blood in N’Djamena, the capital, and in other cities of the country.
The authorities had initially announced that around fifty people had died, mainly young people shot dead in the capital by the forces of order, before re-evaluating this figure at 73 deaths. However, NGOs had denounced the underestimated figures.
Africa News: Burkina Faso holds reburial ceremony for Thomas Sankara
Africa News: Burkina Faso to recruit 5,000 soldiers to fight Jihadists
Africa News: Africa’s largest film festival kicks off in Burkina Faso
Africa News: Cyclone Freddy slams eastern Mozambique with exceptional rainfall
Africa News: Moroccans struggle to secure basic needs as prices rocket
Africa News: Nigerians keep watch for vote’s outcome after delays
MEE: Shadow games on the Red Sea as scramble for Sudan’s ports intensifies
Strange things are happening along the Sudanese coastline.
Foreign operatives appear to be living on small islands in the Red Sea, patrolling the waters around them and banishing the locals.
Billion-dollar deals are being made and then unmade. The whole world is coming to African shores, with dreams of power and profit occupying their thoughts. In the shadows, away from prying eyes, a game is being played.
North America
Naked Capitalism: People Got Used to Higher Prices and Are Outspending even Raging Inflation. They Don’t Want this Thing to Land
People want to get on with their lives, it seems. Their mood has improved. They’ve gotten used to living with high inflation. They got raises or got higher-paying jobs. Gasoline prices have plunged since the peak in mid-2022, and that matters a lot because it’s the most in-your-face inflation along with food inflation. They might still gripe about higher prices, but you live only once?
And so they spent money left and right in January, and they outspent even this raging inflation. We already saw surprising strength from new and used vehicle sales coming out of the auto industry, and from the retailers’ point of view earlier this month, which showed that consumers were in no mood for a landing.
Today, we got inflation-adjusted (or “real”) consumer spending trends for January from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on durable goods, nondurable goods, and services is adjusted for inflation based on the PCE price index, which blew out.
WSWS: US Fed interest rate hikes far from over
Common Dreams: Biden Administration’s 517,000 New Jobs Can’t Overcome Inherent Economic Burdens
Naked Capitalism: One Texas Judge Will Decide Fate of Abortion Pill Used by Millions of American Women
STATnews: ‘A slippery slope’: A looming nationwide abortion pill ban could undermine the entire drug approval system
People’s Daily: Over 100,000 homes, businesses in California suffering power outages due to winter storm
Climate Change News: US offers $550m to tackle pollution in poor neighbourhoods
People’s Daily: Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 accounts for 85 pct new COVID-19 cases in U.S.
Jacobin: Strikes Were Up Significantly Last Year
New numbers show that the number of strikes and the number of workers on strike both went up last year. Labor is still incredibly weak, but more workers walking off the job is a very good thing.
Common Dreams: We Are Here: What If They Gave A Hate Party and Nobody Came?
Because God knows haters gonna hate, the sorry likes of neo-Nazis and The Goyim Defense League declared Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath, a National Day of Hate, per orders to, “Shock the masses with banner drops, stickers, fliers, and graffiti.” Instead, law enforcement and faith leaders prepped to confront brown-shirted storm-troopers improbably met only with glad defiant crowds proclaiming “Love Not Hate,” “A Day of Resolve,” “We Are Here.” So okay. Maybe there’s a sliver of hope for us.
South America
TeleSUR: Over 16,000 Haitian Migrants Deported From Dominican Republic
Monthly Review: Fidel Castro’s legacy lives on as Cuba keeps sending ‘Doctors, not Bombs’ all across the World
Canadian DImension: Protests in Cuba vs. Peru: a case study in Canadian hypocrisy
TeleSUR: Cuban FM Calls for Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp Shut Down
TeleSUR: Maduro: New Stage of Cooperation Between Venezuela and Brazil
TeleSUR: Brazil Mobilizes Largest Warship to Assist Landslide Victims
TeleSUR: Disapproval of Ecuador’s President’s Administration Reaches 85%
The Ukraine Proxy Conflict
TeleSUR: China Proposes 12-Point Plan to End The Ukrainian Conflict
TeleSUR: Russia Welcomes the Chinese Peace Plan for Ukraine
Monthly Review: West tells Global South ‘you can’t be neutral’ in Ukraine war: You are either with us, or against us
Anti War: Washington Post Lets Hersh’s Dangerous Cat Out of the Bag
Bombshell No. 1: Seymour Hersh’s Feb. 8 report that President Joe Biden authorized the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines built to carry cheap Russian gas to Europe.
Bombshell No. 2: The Washington Post today ended the Establishment media embargo on Hersh’s damning report, mentioning its findings and even including a link to his article.
Geopolitical Economy: Ukraine conflict ‘caused by Europeans’ love of war, hegemony’, says Malaysia’s ex leader
MoA: Ukraine - Those Guns Unknown To Me
For the one month I recorded 214 destroyed truck pulled howitzers, 92 destroyed self-propelled howitzers and 56 destroyed Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). About 12,000 Ukrainian troops were also reported to have been killed.
For comparison the artillery ‘fist’ of a NATO tank or motorized infantry division is its artillery brigade. It consists of 3 fire battalions each of which has 3 fire companies each of which has 6 guns or MLRS. That is a total of 52 major artillery pieces.
3 times 3 times 6 is 54, actskually.
Losing a total of 362 major artillery pieces as Ukraine has done in a month is a lot, much more than the ‘west’ is able to replace. The current lack of ammunition that Ukraine claims to have will soon change into an oversupply simply because Ukraine will lack the guns and MLRS to fire it.
But that isn’t the focus of this piece.
I have wondered about some howitzer/gun types the reports mentioned as destroyed. I had never heard of those and had to look them up.
What is for example the M101 truck pulled howitzer?
…
So the M101, pictured below, is a U.S. copy of a German army howitzer design from World War I. Some 10,000 have been build mostly during World War II.
Common Dreams: Ukraine and The Tunnel at the End of the Light
Analysis
Retrospectives, History, Theory, and Technology
Developing Economics: The evolution of mainstream economics in five political-economic questions
The trajectory of mainstream economics can be understood in terms of how the discipline historically responded to moments of crises by attempting to “theoretically fix” the understandings related to five core “questions” of capitalist political economy – namely land, trade, labour, state, and legal-institutional framework. This involved legitimising improvements in land that led to the dispossession and the destruction of the commons, justifying free trade based on comparative advantage as opposed to mercantilist state intervention, reducing labour to a factor of production that was supposedly rewarded based on its marginal productivity and hence not being exploited, legitimising state intervention to stabilise capitalism and developing a legal-institutional framework to protect markets from popular democratic pressures. These “theoretical fixes” served to ideologically legitimise, preserve, and perpetuate the core content of capitalist social relations even as it corresponded with the modification of the surface-level appearances of capitalism.
Developing Economics: Colonialism and the Indian Famines: A response to Tirthankar Roy
Responding to Sullivan and Hickel’s recently published research article (in World Development) and an opinion article (in Al Jazeera), Tirthankar Roy, points out how the authors are wrong in claiming that British colonial policies caused several famines in India. All that is fine, except that these articles neither investigate nor come up with any original claim regarding the causes of famines in colonial India.
Monthly Review: Why embracing anti-colonialism made Malcolm a marked man
The Left and the Right
Monthly Review: The true test of a civilisation is the absence of anxiety about health: The Eighth Newsletter (2023)
Current Affairs: Why The Right Hates Social Security (And How They Plan to Destroy It)
Inside the Imperial Core
MoA: U.S. Hegemony - At War With China’s Global Security Initiative
Geopolitical Economy: West is out of touch with rest of world politically, EU-funded study admits
Jacobin: Britain’s Economic Model Is Crumbling, but Its Politicians Don’t Want to Face Reality
Jacobin: The State of Ukrainian Democracy Is Not Strong
It never was…?
One year after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is backsliding away from democratic freedoms and liberal pluralism.
lmao.
Outside the Imperial Core
Valdai Club: How Russia Can Build Relations With Friendly Countries
A year into the conflict between Russia and the West turning into a proxy military confrontation, the most important lesson learned in terms of the international consequences of these developments is that such a large and powerful country really cannot be isolated in terms of foreign policy. It is difficult to say with certainty how much this is connected with the merits and activity of the Russian state itself, and what simply turned out to be an inevitable consequence of the changing world over the past three-four decades.
Michael Roberts: Nigeria: capitalist failure
Whoever eventually becomes president faces a daunting task. Nigeria is close to being a ‘failed state’, despite the energy of its people. Under current president Buhari, income per capita has fallen and 90m Nigerians live on less than $1.90 a day. At least a third of the population are out of work and tens of millions hold precarious jobs in the so-called informal sector. At the same time, corruption among the elite is rife. To quote the IMF’s latest report on Nigeria: “Nigeria continues to experience large and petty corruption and weak enforcement of the rule of law with perception of corruption having worsened since 2016).”
Security is in an appalling state. During Buhari’s presidency, some 60,000 people have been killed by terrorists, criminal gangs or the army, according to data compiled by the Council on Foreign Relations. In the Islamic State of West Africa Province, an Isis offshoot, runs riot. And secessionist tendencies that erupted into a terrible civil war in the late 1960 are mounting. In 2022, Nigeria ranked 16th bottom out of 179 countries on the Global Fragile States Index and 143rd bottom out of 163 countries on the Global Peace Index. No wonder better-off Nigerians get out of the country if they can.
Climate Change
Climate Change News: US backs Ajay Banga to lead World Bank in climate fight
Inside Climate News: This Arctic US Air Base Has Its Eyes on Russia. But Climate is a Bigger Threat
The isolated Thule Air Base in Greenland is the only U.S. outpost that can monitor all of Russia’s missiles, but thawing permafrost is undermining the station.
Inside Climate News: Al Gore Talks Climate Progress, Setbacks and the First Rule of Holes: Stop Digging
I Love My Trans Comrades!
Can they do a sequel to the USSR please? It’s been 30 years
Normally by this time in the winter season we’ve had a few inches of snow accumulation and maybe one big storm.
So far we have had less than one single inch of snow total and it melted in 45 minutes.
:agony-acid: we are so fucked I hate being a climate scientist
Warming temperatures can also increase snowfall, since warmer air can hold much more water
I thought I’d start off today with a piece by, of all places, Common Dreams.
:bloomer:
Ukraine and The Tunnel at the End of the Light
“Light at the end of the tunnel” was an iconic phrase used by the warmongers who kept the U.S. in Vietnam long after the War had been lost. The implication was that insiders could see through the fog of war and know that things were getting better. It was a lie.
In January 1966, long before the military height of the War, Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara told President Johnson that the U.S. had a one-out-of-three chance of winning on the battlefield. But Johnson, like Eisenhower and Kennedy before him, and Nixon after him, didn’t want to be the first American president to lose a war. So, he ginned up a simplistic lie and “soldiered on.”
The lie was blown by the Tet Offensive in January 1968. More than 100 U.S. military installations were attacked in a simultaneous nationwide assault that stunned the U.S. The broadcaster, Walter Cronkite, then “the most trusted man in America,” bellowed on national television, “I thought we were supposed to be winning this damned thing.” It was the beginning of the end of the U.S.’ murderous and failed occupation.
We’re now facing another light-and-tunnel event, this time in Ukraine. Only now, it’s not the light at the end of the tunnel. It’s the tunnel at the end of the light. What do we mean by that?
Until now, it’s been all light. Remember when the scrappy Ukrainian forces were kicking the barbarian Russian hordes’ asses? When every development betrayed the Russians’ clod-footed strategy, its soldiers’ bad morale, its army’s poor provisioning and worse leadership, and the perilous political situation for Putin back home? The testosterone was flowing. The bravado was intoxicating. The exceptionalism was sublimely seductive. It was only a matter of time and pluck and determination before Ukraine would bloody the bully’s nose and show it what the West was made of.
Remember?
No more.
You can prosecute a war for only so long on the strength of smoke and mirrors, delusions and illusions, lies and press releases. Eventually, however, reality catches up with you. The thuggishly propagandized American citizenry couldn’t know it, but that catching up began in the first weeks of the War and has only accelerated since.
Within the first week of the War, Russia had destroyed Ukraine’s air force and air defenses. By the second week, it had taken out most of Ukraine’s armories and weapons depots. Over following weeks and months, it systematically demolished artillery shipped in from former Warsaw Pact, now NATO, countries in Eastern Europe. It dismantled the country’s transportation and fuel supply systems. It has recently taken out most of the country’s electrical infrastructure.
The Ukrainian army has lost an estimated 150,000 troops, a pace more than 140 times the rate of U.S. losses in Vietnam. This, at a time when 10 million of its formerly 36 million people have fled the country. The military is down to dragooning 16-year-old boys and 60-year-old men to man the barricades. It cannot get replacement ammunition. Russia has knocked out some 90% of Ukraine’s drones, leaving it largely sightless. Delivery times for the tanks that are the hoped-for “game changer” are running into months and years. Not that that will matter.
Remember all the other failed “game changers”? The M777 howitzers and the Stryker armored fighting vehicles? The HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and the PATRIOT air defense systems? All were going to turn the tide at one time. All have proven impotent to stop Russia from seizing 20% of Ukraine’s territory and annexing it and its people to Russia.
The U.S. lost the economic war, as well. Remember Joe Biden’s delusional prediction that the U.S. would see that “the ruble will be reduced to rubble”? And that “the most stringent sanctions regime in history” was going to “weaken” Russia, perhaps even leading to Putin’s overthrow? Most of it backfired, badly. Last year, the ruble reached its highest exchange rate in history. Russia’s 2022 trade surplus of $227 billion was up 86% from 2021. The U.S.’ trade deficit over the same period rose 12.2%, and is approaching $1 trillion.
As a result of all of the above and more, the tide of insider opinion has turned against the War. Senior officials in Europe are talking openly about how the losses are unsustainable and they need to get back to security architectures that prevailed before the poisoned CIA-supported coup in Maidan in 2014. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently let slip that “It will be very, very difficult to eject the Russians from all of occupied Ukraine in the next year. The Washington Post warned recently that Ukraine faced a “critical moment” in the war, belaboring the fact that U.S. support was not limitless and would soon be reached. Hint. Hint.
The Rand Corporation, one of the U.S.’ best-connected strategic whisperers, just published a report stating that “The consequences of a long war far outweigh the benefits.” It explicitly states that the U.S. needs to husband its resources for its more important upcoming conflict with China. Newsweek headlined that “Joe Biden Offered Vladimir Putin 20 Percent of Ukraine to End War.” It also revealed that “Nearly 90 percent of the world isn’t following us on Ukraine.” Vast swaths of Latin American, Africa, and Asia refuse to support the U.S. in its demand for sanctions against Russia.
These are not “Light at the end of the tunnel” divinations. Quite the contrary. If there’s a common thread running through it all it is the sickening recognition that the war is lost, militarily, economically, and diplomatically, that there is no plausible scenario in which those losses will be turned around by soldiering on, and that what is needed now is a hide-the-loss, get-out-any-way-you-can, face-saving exit strategy.
That will not be available, either. That’s where the tunnel at the end of the light comes into play.
Even before the U.S. and its NATO puppets undertook the War, the rest of the world—and that means most of the world—was congealing itself into an anti-Western economic and security bloc. Led by China and its strategic ally, Russia, that bloc includes more than a dozen trade and security organizations. Those include the BRICS confederation of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, working explicitly to devise multi-polar institutions to stand up to the U.S.’ unipolar hegemonic model.
It includes the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security compact made up of leading nations from east, central, and south Asia, including China, Russia, India, and soon, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. It is explicitly working to devise measures to prevent the kind of predatory military assaults the U.S. carried out against Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan.
The organizing economic engine behind these efforts it is China’s Belt and Road Initiative. BRI is a dizzyingly ambitious plan to connect Asia and more than 100 nations with 21st Century economic infrastructure, everything from highways and high-speed rail lines, to power generation, energy pipelines, communication systems, cities, ports, and more. It is critical to understand why BRI poses such daunting challenges to U.S. supremacy in the world.
Infrastructure is so powerful because it spins off a vast, unimaginable array of secondary, and tertiary economic benefits. It was the railroads in the nineteenth century that bound the U.S. together as the world’s first continental-scale market. Manufacturers could produce for a larger market, and, therefore, at larger scale, and, therefore, at lower cost, than could producers anywhere else on earth.
The railroads made the U.S. the largest market in the world for iron, steel, machine tools, grading equipment, farm equipment, and scores of other commercial and industrial products essential to a modern industrial economy. The U.S. began the 1800s with 1.5% of the world’s GDP. It ended the century with 19% of a four-times larger number, making it the largest economy in the world.
Similarly, automobiles. People think it was Henry Ford and mass production that made the Twentieth Century “The American Century.” In fact, it was the build-out of millions of miles of roads and, later, interstates, without which automobiles would have remained expensive playthings of the wealthy. Those roads stitched the country together into an asphalt network that allowed individual mobility, by virtually anybody, anywhere, down to every street address in the country. The world had never seen anything like it.
The secondary and tertiary economic effects were astounding, everything from the world’s largest markets for steel, glass, plastics, and rubber, to gasoline, diesel, highway construction on a continental scale, repair shops and drive-ins, to the entire panoply of culture we know of as suburbia. The Twentieth Century was the Century of the Automobile. The infrastructure the U.S. built to make it possible was the major reason—at least economically—that the U.S. led the world for most of that century.
China is now proposing to do the same for Asia in the Twenty-First Century, but on a much larger scale. It is leading an infrastructure build-out that will dwarf Eisenhower’s Interstate highway system. It will serve most of the five billion people in Eurasia, thirty TIMES more than the 150 million people Eisenhower’s project helped.
Wisely, China has ensured that all of the 100+ nations joining BRI are enriched by their participation, whether building themselves up domestically, or extending their reach internationally. It is the largest, most compelling, geographically extensive, nationally inclusive, mutually enriching economic enterprise in the history of the world. The U.S. is not part of it.
Finally, there is the matter of the dollar. Since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, the global economy has used the dollar as the primary currency of international trade. This has given the U.S. an “exorbitant privilege” in that it can essentially write an unlimited stream of hot checks to the world, because countries need dollars to be able to conduct international commerce. The U.S. “sells” them dollars by issuing Treasury debt, which is a universally fungible international medium of exchange.
One of the consequences of this arrangement is that it has allowed the U.S. to spend far beyond its means, running up $32 trillion of debt since 1980, when its national debt stood at a mere $1 trillion. The U.S. uses this debt to, among other things, fund its gargantuan military with its 800 military bases around the world, which it uses to do things like destroy Serbia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, and a host of lesser predations on other countries. All the world sees this and is repulsed by it.
The world sees how dollar hegemony underwrites the U.S.’ ability to carry out or attempt coups in Honduras, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Myanmar, Belarus, Egypt, Syria, and, of course, Ukraine, among others. And these are just those in the past two decades.
The same dollar hegemony underwrote U.S. predations in the latter part of the Twentieth Century against Iran, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Vietnam, Nicaragua, Cuba, Chile, Congo, Brazil, Indonesia, and dozens of other countries. Again, the rest of the world sees this. U.S. citizens, rapturously oblivious in their hermetically sealed media bubble, do not.
The world saw how the U.S. stole $300 billion of Russian funds that were held in Western banks, part of its sanctions regime against Russia for its role in the Ukraine war. They’ve seen how the U.S. has carried out similar thefts against dollar-denominated funds of Venezuela, Afghanistan, and Iran. It sees how the Federal Reserve’s raising of interest rates to take care of U.S. needs makes capital flow out of other countries, and how it makes their currencies fall, forcing inflation on them. Not a single country in the world is left untouched.
The cumulative impact of these facts is that many countries would rather not be held hostage to the implicit and explicit negative consequences of dollar hegemony. They also want to remove the “exorbitant privilege” that they believe the U.S. has abused to their individual and collective detriment.
They have begun—again, led by Russia and China—to build an international finance and trading system that doesn’t rely on dollars, that uses countries’ local currencies, gold, oil, or other assets to trade. This received special impetus last year when Saudi Arabia announced it would begin accepting Chinese yuan in exchange for its oil. Oil is the world’s most valued internationally-traded commodity, so the perception is that a dam is beginning to break.
It will take years before an equally functional substitute for the dollar is devised but what began a few years ago as a trickle has gained momentum and urgency as a consequence of U.S. actions in Ukraine. When the dollar is no longer the world’s international reserve currency and nations don’t need dollars to trade with each other, the U.S. will no longer be able to fund its massive budget and trade deficits by writing hot checks. The withdrawal will be agonizing and will greatly circumscribe the U.S.’ role as global hegemon.
U.S. actions in Ukraine have driven together its two greatest adversaries, Russia and China. They, joined by India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and dozens of other countries, are carrying out a Mackinder-feared Eurasian integration that will leave the U.S. outside of the world’s largest and most dynamic trading bloc.
The U.S.’ military failure has advertised, once again (after Iraq and Afghanistan), the relative impotence of U.S. military solutions. Yes, it can still destroy small, defenseless countries like Serbia, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq. But against a peer competitor that has chosen to stand up to it, the U.S. has, frankly, been handed its ass. All the world can see it.
Events have shown the hollowness of U.S.-led economic and financial systems, as well, especially compared to China. China’s economic performance has far surpassed that of the U.S. It has lifted more people out of poverty more quickly than any country in the history of the world. Its growth has made it the largest economy in the world in purchasing power parity terms. While average inflation-adjusted incomes in the U.S. are little higher than they were 50 years ago, incomes in China are up more than 10 TIMES over the same period. And it has done this without brutalizing and pillaging other nations that refuse to bend to its hegemonic will.
And, the War has betrayed, as nothing else possibly could, the diplomatic isolation of the U.S., with the vast majority of the world’s people refusing to implement U.S.-demanded sanctions against Russia. Its destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline is recognized as the greatest act of state-sponsored terrorism in history, easily surpassing 911 in terms of the hundreds of millions of people it will hurt. And this, to one of its putative allies, Europe. Imagine what happens to its enemies.
This is the tunnel at the end of the light, a multi-polar as opposed to a unipolar world. It means increasing isolation of the U.S. from the rest of the world, the closing in of options, the narrowing of opportunities, the loss of strategic primacy that once graced the greatest power in the history of the world. It will mean dramatically reduced power and influence vis-à-vis the U.S.’ strategic adversaries, and markedly constrained ability to operate militarily, economically and financially in the world, what with the hot checkbook soon to be taken away.
In twenty or thirty years, the U.S. will still be a substantial regional power, perhaps like Brazil in South America, Iran in West Asia, or Nigeria in Africa. But it will not be the global hegemon it once was, able to project and inflict power in the world as it has done for the last century. The U.S. abused its providential anointment as the exceptional nation. That abuse has been recognized, called out, and is now being acted against by most of the other nations of the world. The future will be very different for the U.S. than it has been for the past 80 years, since the end of World War II when it towered over the rest of the world like a giant among pygmies. Ukraine will prove to have been the turning point in this transformation, the tunnel at the end of the light.
It will take years before an equally functional substitute for the dollar is devised but what began a few years ago as a trickle has gained momentum and urgency as a consequence of U.S. actions in Ukraine. When the dollar is no longer the world’s international reserve currency and nations don’t need dollars to trade with each other, the U.S. will no longer be able to fund its massive budget and trade deficits by writing hot checks. The withdrawal will be agonizing and will greatly circumscribe the U.S.’ role as global hegemon.
Hoping things play out like this article says. This was a good read
Things are rarely so simple, but the fact that we can even talk as if this was not only possible but plausible is a big development from the post-2020 leftist malaise. If you teleported this article back to even early 2022, this would be regarded as copium of the highest order. Now, it’s just a little bit cope-y.
Remember all the other failed “game changers”? The M777 howitzers and the Stryker armored fighting vehicles? The HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and the PATRIOT air defense systems? All were going to turn the tide at one time. All have proven impotent to stop Russia from seizing 20% of Ukraine’s territory and annexing it and its people to Russia.
There were also the Phoenix Ghost drones and the Switchblade drones. I’m trying to think if there might be more Wunderwaffen I’ve forgotten.