Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist Catherine Ganter said the atmospheric changes we would expect to see during El NiƱo had so far not occurred.
āAtmospheric indicators of El NiƱo include wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns across the Pacific Ocean,ā Ms Ganter said.
āWhile the past fortnight has seen a decrease in Southern Oscillation Index values to El NiƱo-like values, this strong swing has been due to more localised higher than average pressure in Darwin, rather than a broader El NiƱo signal.ā āOverall, the atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other as occurs during El NiƱo events.ā The status of the El NiƱo- Southern Oscillation Outlook is determined using set Criteria and expert analysis by climatologists at the Bureau.
The Bureau issued an El NiƱo Watch on 14 March 2023, and the ENSO Outlook moved to El NiƱo Alert on 6 June this year.
During El NiƱo, the chance of drier conditions increases for eastern Australia during winter and spring and it is usually warmer for the southern two-thirds of Australia.
In summer, El NiƱo increases the likelihood of reduced rainfall in northern Australia.
El NiƱo summers also tend to have warmer days across northern and south-eastern Australia, as well as parts of the south-west.
The link is bugged. Reads Cairns but goes to the right page, I hope.
