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Clinton has 98% chance of winning right?
Weird! When I click on that link, there’s no predictions for who’s going to win the 2020 presidential election, which is quite unlike what they did in 2016. I wonder why?
538 gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning on Election Day. It was 90% before the Comey Letter.
there wasn’t anything wrong with the polls
See my link below. I was referring to MSNBC which actually published a 99% prediction. New York Times was at 85%. 538 at least had the dignity to stop doing predictions.
15% and 1% are not similar predictions. 15% is roughly the probability of throwing a D6 and getting a 6, that is, fairly unlikely but very possible. 1% is roughly the probability of throwing three D6’s and getting either 6-6-6 or 5-5-5, i.e. extremely unlikely.
I’m not sure it’s really very useful to assign probabilities to election outcomes, since they’re rare, one-off, highly unpredictable events. But predicting that something will happen with probability 85%, and then it not happening, is not an inherently bad prediction. Iirc the 99% one was pretty stupid and made some obviously flawed assumptions.
Also I think 538 just haven’t got theirs ready yet. There’s no way Nate Pewter can resist building a wildly overcomplicated model that basically just outputs “yeah, the person who’s leading the polls will probably win, but we don’t know for sure” in a numerical form that he knows most people don’t understand.
That’s literally not possible unless a sizable portion of hispanics vote for someone who wants them deported.
NC lol
The joke is in thinking OH, GA, FL, and TX will have anything resembling free and fair elections.
Even when the Dems are running things in my home district of Harris County, we’ve got 7-hour lines at predominantly minority Texas Southern University.
COVID is just going to make the ratfuckery worse. I fully anticipate thousands of ballots “lost in the mail” and polling stations spontaneously shut down amid a slew of COVID call-in scares.
Every 4 years we hear about blue texas.
This is the Lib version of Warhammer 40K chuds writing fanfic where everything is going swimmingly for the Empire
