Now that there’s some time away from the mania this weekend, been reflecting on what’s been going on with WSB/GME stock and while I don’t know very much about investment or finance, this whole situation is giving me shivers down my spine and some serious deja vu.

My prediction is that GME will hover around $350 for a week… without ever truly “squeezing,” and there’s going to be a ton of redditors who absolutely, positively will lose all their savings by holding too late for the big squeeze that will never come…

Here’s my thoughts; skip to the ending bullet points if you simply want the objective facts that support this thesis.

First, let me start with a bit of background. I’m not ashamed to admit I worked as a volunteer staff on the Bernie campaign (Event Coordinator; training field organizers and connecting them up with national staff). It genuinely seemed like Democratic Socialism was a viable possibility. We didn’t need revolutionary change - we had the people on our side and could just win through sheer appeal!

Of course, the people never came. And the opposition within the Democratic party was stronger than any of us imagined. You all know the story… party insiders burning Iowa to the ground, circling the wagons on Super Tuesday to force all the front runners out before votes were cast, ridiculous Biden media fanboyism… etc. etc.

The irrational exuberance that small investors/the little guy is winning right now is misplaced. This is far from a sure thing. Very few individuals have actually come out ahead and there’s good reason to think this all might head south quickly.

But it’s not just a feeling, heres some objective facts that worth thinking about:

• 65% of GME stock is held by institutional investors, 15% insiders… so it follows that it’s only the 20% of retail trader stock causing this volitility.
• With such large institutional advantage in squeezing this stock, it stands to reason that this squeeze only potentially occured because there’s probably some internal financial squabble going on… that coincidentally coincided with the retail investor squeeze.
• The retail trader squeeze must not be allowed to succeed by capital. If it turns into a “money machine” for typical investors it will be replicated.
• Maybe the point of the crazy actions during week by brokers (like limiting stock purchases, cancelling orders, etc.) was just to buy some breathing room for this weekend. I predict a new strategy this upcoming week.
• When the ruling class is losing, they can change the rules. Big assumption with the squeeze is that they are under the same time constraints for shorting as usual investors. What’s to say their broker just can’t keep defering short buybacks until the price gets hammered back down to “acceptible” levels?

Just a thought.