financethrowaway [comrade/them]
I’m super skeptical about the validity of this info. Superstonk is basically a doomsday cult. Not too long ago they posted all this proof that the shorts were never covered and that, one again, meant GME was going to take off. It still hasn’t. At this point it just seems like a huge cope factory that has to spin up all this reasoning for why the messiah hasn’t come yet. If they just add up the number in the Bible a different way (which they can do infinitely with publicly available stock information), then they get a new date of the return.
Yeah capitalism is obviously a scam and no doubt hedges have some sort of system of graft with regulators and it’s all a giant money making scheme. But I don’t think that has much to do with why GME didn’t “go to the moon.” And the same people who still don’t understand why they got exactly what they wanted, they just didn’t get out in time, are now posting a bunch of spreadsheets and calling it proof that the squeeze is about to be squoze.
I would much less take their technical analysis of the situation as insight and rather recognize this kind of coping mechanism as becoming increasingly common because people are more aware of the scam, they just don’t have the vocabulary or right framing to explain it. Even when you push them on it, they know something wrong they just don’t think the problem is capitalism. Until they do, we don’t have any real radicalization going on. And the more I watch this GME shit spread to the crypto subs and really any investment sub, the more I’m convinced that this shit didn’t do anything to actually push people left at all. They’re not even rejecting the idea of rich people saving them, they’re just mad it’s not happening. They want it to happen, they expect it to happen, and every time it doesn’t happen it’s onto the next group of rich people that will do it. You can be frustrated at the system without questioning it. We sometimes confuse that frustration with questioning because we’re coping too by hoping enough people on the internet think capitalism is bad.
$0.49 now. Big oof for the people who bought above $0.50
Volume increases as everyone starts buying the dip. Then the price rebounds a bit. I think it’s still on but who knows when the price will actually launch.
The retail restrictions are buying time. The whales are holding enough and buying more so it offsets whatever smaller holders leave. The ladder attacks keep happening and trying to get the price low. But then people double down and buy more on dips. Then the price rebounds. As soon as the US market closes, the price goes back up. Repeat the next day. What is the out here? Is it just to cover shorts with more shorts because you know the ladder attacks will drop the price? Then once enough is covered, you hope enough memers have lost interest and pulled out so that the squeeze won’t happen? Stall until March and hope the earnings report will be bad enough to conduct a media campaign to drive off investors?
What is Melvin getting out of prolonging this?
It’s just another distraction. I’m not going to moralize and say that someone shouldn’t throw $100 at a meme coin if it makes them feel better. But it is creating another safe arena to exert radical anger without actually hurting anything. In fact, I’m sure the hedges and Wall Street love that these people are posting all their moves on the fifth largest site in the world. They know that thousands of people are moving in a certain direction. And not only that but it’s also created a pool of marks for advertising. So it’s just ultimately a dead end for any real sentiments about changing the system. It’s not like we didn’t know that or the people here who do it have any allusions in that regard. But there are people who do.
They do this thing where they openly discuss why what they do won’t work but then use that as a reason to keep doing it.
These hedge funds have all these shorts in a company. Without asking why that may be we attach ourselves parasocially to that company. Because we got screwed out of $30 on a copy of Call of Duty once and that somehow translates to a fond childhood moment for some reason. Then we buy up that company’s stock, and hold it. That increases the value of the company which helps the parent company and the hedges who back it. We keep holding so that the other hedges can’t cash in their shorts for profit. Shorts expire but for some reason this one company is always shorted the most any company has ever been shorted. We know because some stranger online posted a spreadsheet of bloomberg terminal data and this totally isn’t a bunch of laymen trying to decipher financial runes. So we hold and hold and the price goes up because we’re the first people in history to learn about supply and demand.
The hedges then crash all of our plans to defeat the largest financial institutions in the world by using some arcane financial magics to bypass the squeeze. So the fact that what we said would happen by a certain date didn’t happen means we’re actually right. It only didn’t happen because the hedges we’re fighting had a trick up their sleeve. It’s not thousands of people playing telephone with hastily thrown together Robinhood screenshots and reading tea leaves through amateur technical analysis. It’s an underdog story and if you’re against the underdogs, then you’re an asshole. We still have this idea that when a group of internet nerds put their head together, it has to change the world. It can’t be a tremendous waste of time. If it is, then that means me spending all my life online means nothing. The underdogs have to win. We did it reddit.
The diamond hands have won and regrouped. The price is going up again after the crash. Here’s 30 stickied theads full of memes and theorycrafting about why what we said would happen will happen this time for sure. Sure, every two weeks our story changes a little. Since it’s different people doing it we just listen to the last person who said something. The person who said the the thing before this last one was just wrong, not us for gilding them 600 times. But hey, we’re right this time for sure. The squeeze is happening again.
Oh no, it looks like the hedges are striking again. The price spiked but didn’t go to the moon and reach $1000 so I could buy my mom a new kidney. We were so right on our DD so that can’t be it. It must be hedges pulling their tricks again. We’re not going to stop and ask why are we doing this if the hedges can easily defeat every squeeze attempt. Nope. It’ll work we just need to keep buying stock and holding it. Which totally only makes us money and not all the financial institutions between our stock that we don’t technically own because lolretailbrokers. And even though we realize that nobody can deliver millions of outstanding shares, we’re going to keep buying shares that don’t exist. We need to keep telling our enemy hedges exactly when we’re buying and selling and what we’re thinking on this public website.
Also because this is my first and only experience with finance, everything is a squeeze. Bitcoin? Squeeze. Doge? Squeeze. A stock that’s shorted 7%? Squeeze. Pennystock moonshots? Squeeze. Everything is GME. Everything works exactly how people on r/wsb and r/superstonk and r/doge works. That’s how you understand a complex economic system ruled by powerful people, reading posts.
And that’s why people on the left, including myself, sometimes fall for these arguments. Because people of all political tendencies, who are online, think you learn through posting. That’s how they were exposed to their politics and given the vocabulary to express it. So naturally a tunnel vision develops and these message boards become the center of everything. The real hot take for GME, that I’m warming up to, is that reddit had overall a very small impact. It actually wasn’t DFV or r/wsb that caused the squeeze. It was going to happen anyways and they stumbled onto it. Just like the VW squeeze wasn’t about small individual stock holders. The media picked up on it because they chase any internet meme shit. This is all a bunch of online people convincing themselves of a history that never happened. And they’re writing themselves a new one as time goes on. I’m not fully committed to that idea but it’s very tempting. If this shit doesn’t go to the moon soon, then it’s going to feel a lot more real than the version where reddit was right about everything.
I’m going to try a little bit of an effort post just to see if I am understanding this correctly. Also it might help answer why people are still paying attention to this when it’s clearly “over.”
There are 100 people in a room and each holds 5 shares worth $100 each. They all bought in when the price was $200 per share. Some are getting nervous and want to sell so they don’t completely lose their money. The market opens and 10 of the 100 people step up to sell their shares. They each as $100 per share since that’s the current market price. The buyers, who are the other people in the room, don’t want to buy at $100 if they can help it. They want the cheapest price. So the haggling begins. One buyer offers $99 per share. One of the sellers, who sees an opportunity to unload, takes it. So they sell a share at $99. Now the rest of the sellers realize they probably have to accept a lower price if they want out. The buyers realize there is room for a lower price. Maybe a few more shares exchange at $99 but then the buyers start asking $98. Now the sellers must again accept what people are willing to pay or just keep holding. But they want out immediately so they keep taking lower prices. 50 (5 shares from 10 people) shares have exchanged hands and the current price is now $90.
This is bad, right? Not exactly. The price is only about the current market value. It’s not about value. And the reason the price dropped so steeply so quick is because only 10 people out of a 100 sold their shares. The number of shares in the room hasn’t changed. It’s not even representative of the action in the room. The vast majority of the people are holding. But the price only reflects what’s actually being bought/sold, it measures the action of buying/selling not the action of holding. Therefore buyers getting a good deal on newly available shares makes the measurement go down. Trying to judge what’s happening in the room from price alone won’t tell you anything. If you just pay attention to that, you would think the world is on fire and everyone is selling. You have to also pay attention to volume.
10 people driving the price down $10 isn’t a big deal. If 90 people drove the price down, something is going on, people are trying to get rid of their shares and nobody is really in control of the price. It’s just going down because of normal supply/demand commerce. People are still holding.
Let’s say a new person walks into the room (now there’s 90 holders 10 people with 0 shares, and 1 new person). They are a big buyer and they want to buy everyone’s remaining shares. The price is $90 so they feel like they’re getting a deal. They offer $90 per share and want 500 shares. Well the holders look at each other and decide not to sell. They bought in at $200 and aren’t willing to let it go for cheap. The haggling begins and the buyer works their offers up to $150 per share. Some people cave and the buyer partially fills their order. The price doesn’t go down like it did with the first 10 people who sold because the remaining people are still holding out for $200. The buyer must either give up or keep raising the offer. Some holders drop out at $175. Some stay in. Finally the buyer finishes filling their order at $205 per share. The trading day is over.
Of course real life is more complicated because people aren’t just buying and selling. There is also a series of bets going on parallel to these simple trades. Some are betting on what the price will do (which, again, reflects the action in the room). And those bets end up affecting the price as well because people are aware of them and will strategize sales/acquisitions around them. But I think it helps to strip away that stuff and look at the very basic (capitalist) economics of it. It shows that price alone is not an indicator of what’s happening. The stock can dramatically fall or rise in price while the majority of what’s happening is nothing.
This is why celebrating line go up or down shouldn’t be serious. I remember last spring we were laughing at line go down, but then months later it reaches all-time highs. The present is ephemeral. You have to look at other factors like volume.
The volume of GME is still low compared to the first rise. Overall, if I am reading my chart correctly, the majority of people have bought and held than have sold. Regardless of what the price is doing, most people aren’t doing anything. The majority of what has been bought hasn’t been sold, even with the price dropping so harshly. What does this mean? Well it’s like the room example. The price is reflecting a minority of trades. The example is very tidy because thousands of people aren’t involved. What we’re seeing is people selling off tiny bits, while the majority holds. In real life you’re never going to get everyone to act in unison, but as long as the majority holds out, they will be paid when a buyer walks into the room.
If you believe that the major players here are what counts, and random redditors aren’t driving this, then the big boys haven’t sold either. They own the majority of the shares in the room, so why didn’t they dump everything at $400? I don’t know. I assume they know something I don’t because they have dozens of PhDs working for them and AI and whatever else. If by some chance it’s not big firms that hold the majority here, but the random redditors, then oh boy. That means the holders are actually in control as long as they hold.
I think it’s important to note I’m not even talking about shorts. Forget the shorts. Just look at the most basic supply/demand of the situation. The holders don’t even need shorts to be in play for them to win. They just have to hold until a buyer offers an outrageous price. The shorts are only about expediency, they guarantee a buyer has to emerge soon in order to buy back all these shares they’re holding. But without the short, this turns into a long play. Unless Gamestop goes out of business, it should pay off in the long run. Or if Gamestop creates new shares and that dilutes the price.
Of course it’s not going to work perfectly. People will get tired of waiting for the messiah and sell. That will affect the overall strategy. It may make the final offer lower. By how much? IDK. If you got in at $400 you’re probably screwed. It also depends on what happens with covid. Gamestop wanted to turn into gamer cafes last I heard. That’s not going to happen if everyone is too afraid of coofing to death. So that could potentially ruin it or make it stretch even longer.
I’m not saying that continuing to hold is a good strategy or that people should. Just that even if you just look at the most basic grade-school economics of the situation, there’s something still here. It doesn’t even have to rely on shorts being covered by a desperate hedge. I just hope the dinguses at r/wsb haven’t focused so much on the short situation that they will suddenly dump if the short squeeze shit doesn’t take off this week. By the end of 2021 though, the holders could force the price back up.
TLDR: To check the volume for yourself, go into your trading app, look at the volume chart, add up all the green bars’ lengths then compare to the total red bars’ lengths. Most people have not sold. These drops are only a measure of a small amount of the total action.
This isn’t cope either. I’m not saying this will all pay off and everything is okay. I’m just saying what the chart is saying. If this is over then people should be dumping their shares to get out of it and reduce risk. But they’re not. And if we’re all wrong, then nobody is. Because acting as if we aren’t wrong is what’s going to end up driving the price back up eventually, regardless of shorts.
Being interested in bad companies succeeding is not what “reactionary” means. You mean it’s inherently capitalist or right wing. Calling it right wing it’s a tautology. In order to trade the stock market you have to participate in the market. Believing in free markets is right wing. It’s not reactionary though. Reactionary is like we should go back to the Dutch East India Trading Co way of doing stocks. Wanting only the wealthy involved in stocks like it used to be is reactionary.
Yes, people here are participating in something that’s inherently capitalist. Now what? What’s supposed to happen when we realize that?
Almost 50% jump before 10am. Trading has been halted three times in less than 40 mins. Probably a dead cat bounce so please be careful.
WYSIWYG1