Besides a few pockets of Russian speakers in places like the Donbass in Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, and Northern Georgia the Russian language is in major decline in all former soviet states outside Russia itself and Belorussia. National language policies in former soviet states have created entire generations who did not have to take Russian in school. Something like less than 30% of citizens of former soviet states have any ability to understand Russian, that demographic skews older, and without younger generations gravitating towards Russian cultural/media/political/science institutions any sort of peaceful influence Russia has in those states is coming to an end.
Putin’s calculus on Donbass is the same as Crimea. With the rapid decline in Russian speakers in former soviet satellite states there will soon be no excuses to invade and obtain a path to the Mediterranean for any future Russian government. War now, deal with the fallout like in Crimea, or never have the chance to secure a warm water port for Russia ever.
