Thank you @SeventyTwoTrillion for all your effort. :sankara-salute:
If you have any useful resource links please tag me in a comment with the link:
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to this if you can, thank you.
Links
Time/Map: https://time.is/Ukraine
Leftist discussion threads:
https://hexbear.net/post/177324
https://old.reddit.com/r/GenZedong/comments/t03foy/genzedong_russiaukraine_master_discussion_thread/ :kitty-cri-texas:
Twitter military updaters:
https://nitter.42l.fr/RWApodcast
https://nitter.net/ASBMilitary :kitty-cri:
https://nitter.net/Militarylandnet
https://nitter.net/MihajlovicMike
https://nitter.net/KofmanMichael
https://nitter.net/TadeuszGiczan/status/1498673348183744518
https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia/videos
obvious disclaimers about taking all of them with tonnes of salt etc
Global South Perspective: https://nitter.net/kiranopal_/status/1498723206496145413
Better war/propaganda analysis:
https://www.understandingwar.org
https://www.moonofalabama.org/
News updates:
https://www.cgtn.com/special/UkraineCrisis.html
Live: https://www.cgtn.com/special/Live-update-Ukraine-Russia-border-crisis.html
YT/Video in Ukraine:
Previous megathreads
!news@hexbear.net RSS Feed https://hexbear.net/feeds/c/news.xml
I was following really closely for the first few weeks but just couldn’t anymore. Back then, it was being said that Russia had an almost certain win, even if it was drawn out in a presumable attempt to reduce civilian casualties. Looking at that map now looks like that’s not the case at all. MSM has been saying Ukraine would win for sure from the start, but I know that’s all lies and propaganda. We were wrong about there being no invasion when Biden kept saying “any day now!” Were we wrong to assume Russia would win this?
Obviously no one knows and we can’t predict the future, but is there any sort of consensus here on what the most likely outcomes are? Is there still any chance Zelensky and the current govt. will be removed from power by Russia, or is it looking like the focus is just on defending/taking the Donbas area?
Edit: Thank you for the responses and clarification.
Russia is winning, but it’s not like they’re in a position to be able to take the entirety of Ukraine anytime soon.
Most likely outcome is that Russia removes all of the Donbass region, and at least a significant portion of the Novorossiya region from Ukraine, either by turning those oblasts into independent republics like Donetsk & Lugansk, or by directly annexing them into the Russian Federation. Russia still doesn’t control Odessa or Dnipropetrovsk at this point, meaning they currently only hold ~1/2 of Novorossiya. I’ve heard some rumors that Russia might be about to launch an offensive to try and take Odessa, but idk if that’s actually happening or not.
No idea what’ll happen to Zelensky, but I would imagine that an outright loss for Ukraine will definitely be the end of his government whether the Russians are the ones deposing him or not. On top of that, the Ukrainian nazi militias/political parties aren’t going to be satisfied with anything less than Ukraine retaking Crimea and the Donbass, so a even a stalemate would probably end his government.
Having watched a few wars over the years “Winning” is such a… it’s a concept for armchair paradox 4x nerds. Russia is significantly depleting Ukraine’s military resources and causing real damage to their military infrastructure. So that may achieve some of their goals. Ukraine probably won’t have any less territory than it started with at the end of the war, assuming the DPR and LPR hold out. Russia has pissed off everyone west of the Neva but it increasingly seems like that doesn’t matter and they’re rallying to take advantage. If the Russian’s manage to deplete the Ukrainian military to the point where they can’t launch further attacks on the DPR and the LPR then at least the republics “Win”. Assuming they don’t end up so economically devastated by the fighting that their victory leaves them broken and destitute. And of course we seem on a course that makes WWIII inevitable at some point, as the fear of nuclear apocalypse seems to have been forgotten. Or maybe it’s just a realpolitik move - Global warming will be far more destructive than a full nuclear exchange, and the aftermath will last millenia instead of decades, so maybe the powers that be are wagering that they a nuclear war won’t be any worse than the climate apocalypse that is already inevitable.
Ukraine already lost the vast majority of their military equipment, tanks, APCs, aviation, navy.
If there was a white peace tomorrow it would take years if not a whole decade to rebuild their military. It will take shorter if the west finances it, but Ukraine is already a very poor country and the military budget was already huge, the west is eventually going to make them take IMF loans to pay back all that “lethal aid”. Long term the country has no future it is nothing more than NATO’s attack dog.
The actual important stuff like rebuilding all the bombed cities and rebuilding the economy is going to take even longer if it ever recovers at all.
There is no conceivable way to call this a victory for Ukraine unless we treat it as a game of risk where the objective is to have your color on the map.
Were we wrong to assume Russia would win this?
The war is far from over(1-2 months minimum), they retreated the troops from Kiev in order to launch a new offensive in the east. At the very least they’ll liberate the entire Donbass region and call that a victory.
