It’s time to play… Will There Be A Recession*! It’s your host… nah I’m not actually gonna do a whole 7DeadlyFetishes thing don’t worry lol

* in the next year or two.

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On the side of “Yes there will/It’s at least somewhat likely”, we have:

• A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns

Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a “mild” one. Now, it’s warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve’s quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation. "“We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.

• JPMorgan CEO warns of ‘powerful forces’ threatening U.S. economy into a recession

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Dimon said that the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on monetary policy could combine to significantly increase the chances of a recession.

• Jeremy Grantham, Ray Dalio, and other elite investors are pounding the alarm on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to rattle financial markets and disrupt the global economy. Several top-flight investors have weighed in on the crisis, warning it could worsen inflation, plunge the US economy into recession, and even transform the world order.

• The Slower the Fed, the Harder the Landing

When will the recession happen? My best guess: Probably not this year, more likely in 2023 or 2024. And the later the downturn comes, the worse it will be.

• Britain could fall into recession this summer, say experts

Britain’s economy is at growing risk of falling into a summer recession amid the biggest squeeze on household incomes since the mid 1950s, as soaring inflation curtails consumer spending power, forecasters have said.

• Will The Fed Cause A Recession? What You Need To Know

Monetary inflation could be curbed if the Fed would reduce its bloated money supply and stabilize the value of the dollar. Instead, our central bank wants to slow the economy and jack-up unemployment. That’s the wrong prescription—and it’s why an unnecessary recession looms.

• Mohamed El-Erian says ‘humbled’ Fed needs skill, time and luck to engineer a soft landing after Powell touts half-point hike

Economist Mohamed El-Erian said the Federal Reserve’s big steps to tame inflation may be too late and could risk a recession in the US.

• Dow falls 800 points on recession fears

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On the side of “No there won’t/It’s unlikely”, we have:

• America Inc. Isn’t Worrying and ‘Strong Recovery’: Resilient Consumers Ease U.S. Recession Worry

American chief executives aren’t yet subscribing to fears that red-hot inflation will ultimately tip the economy into recession. Weeks after Wall Street banks kicked off earnings season by saying household finances were in good shape, Main Street firms are lining up to express confidence in the U.S. consumer even as price pressures mount, according to this story from Olivia Rockeman, Reade Pickert and Vildana Hajric.

Corporate executives are touting the strength of U.S. consumers in the face of surging inflation, assuaging mounting fears of recession.

• 3 charts that explain why the US isn’t on the brink of a recession

• Recession Predictions Are Piling Up. Don’t Freak Out.

What makes this time different from any other is the relatively strong financial position of the average household. Any discussion about inflation and the negative effects on the economy and consumers needs to start with excess savings. The generous social programs instituted by the U.S. government to support the economy through the Covid-19 pandemic allowed consumers to build up an amazingly high cash cushion.

The odds of a recession are 35%, says one of Biden’s favorite economists

• The world may dodge another recession. But risks are growing.

• Bank of Italy’s Visco Says Recession in Italy Unlikely

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On the side of “Maybe, I guess?” or some other qualified view, we have:

• A recession is likely in 2023, but the hot housing market should cushion the blow

• Europe Faces Higher Recession Risks Than U.S.A.

“If a recession does materialize, it is more likely to do so in Europe than in the US,” states a recent report from London based consulting firm Capital Economics.

• War, Inflation and Politics Put Europe at Greater Recession Risk

Over the past couple of months, everyone has been talking about the potential for a recession in the U.S. While this isn’t a negligible risk as I explained earlier, there is a region that’s closer to the proverbial precipice. Europe is both weaker economically and more vulnerable to an exogenous shock.

• Ban on Russian gas would plunge Germany into recession, warns Bundesbank

• How a Recession Might — and Might Not — Happen

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Also, fuck FiveThirtyEight!

• Were The Stimulus Checks A Mistake?