Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Yesterday’s discussion post.
Alright, people on mobile wanted an actual comment thread in the post to comment on, so here it is. You can’t pin comments, unfortunately.
Economically
Economically
Europe
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The EU proposes a total ban on Russian oil imports, cutting out crude within 6 months src
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Oil and natural gas jump in Europe after EU unveils plans to phase out Russian crude within 6 months src
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Also: Oil jumps 3% as EU plans ban on Russian oil src
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Germany warns EU to expect economic cost from Russian oil embargo src
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Beer prices in Germany will rise by 30%, says German media.
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British Petroleum (BP) lost $25 billion due to it pulling out of Russia, with a loss of $20.4 billion for the quarter; but by a different measure, its net profit increased due to high oil and gas prices. src
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‘Risky’ fourth straight rate hike expected from Bank of England as inflation soars src
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Brexit Made Boris Johnson. Now He Has to Face Its Costs src
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Norway’s Equinor posts strong Q1, to exit Russian ventures src
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German Exports to Russia Sink to Two-Decade Low After Invasion src
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Reports that Italy is open to paying for Russian gas in rubles misleading. It doesn’t explain how it’s misleading, it just says that the reports that Italy might temporarily allow gas-for-rubles were wrong, or something. src
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Bulgarian industry prepares to protest over gas costs: The country’s energy regulator predicted a 35% rise in prices following the suspension of Russian supplies src
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On May 2, Germany stopped giving Russian gas to Poland, Gazprom reported. Now Warsaw is taking Russian gas intended for Italy and France in reverse.
Asia and Oceania
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China’s manufacturing slowdown due to the lockdown will likely affect the US soon, as China’s manufacturing figures correlate very closely with US manufacturing, albeit with a 3 month lag. src
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China’s yuan ‘far from a top global reserve’, as investors dump assets amid Ukraine war. I don’t think China even wants the yuan to be a global reserve currency, right? src
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China addresses food security concerns
… the Russia-Ukraine conflict cramped China-bound exports of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil from the two farm-rich countries. The conflict has also driven up prices of soybeans as a substitute. Meanwhile, four-fifths of US soybeans are processed into livestock feed in China and the rest into vegetable oil.
“It’s supply and demand, which augurs another good year for farmers in the US heartland, whether it’s due to volume or value,”
Middle East
- Kazakhstan maintains plans on up to 100 mln tonnes of oil output per year, says ministry src
Africa
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Libya eyes buying grain and flour from Russia src
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Nigeria buys emergency Canadian potash to replace lost Russian supply. src
Uche Orji, the head of NSIA, declined to comment on prices. However, spot prices today are up more than 250% for deliveries to west Africa compared to last year, according to commodities pricing agency Argus Media, dealing a further blow to the country’s finances.
- Nigeria oil minister says Russia interested in gas pipeline to Morocco src
Sylva said President Muhammadu Buhari’s government hoped to at least kickstart the project before leaving office in May 2023. He did not say how much it will cost.
Nigeria is rich in hydrocarbons but produces little electricity, making its industries uncompetitive.
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Drought-Hit Zimbabweans Cut Poverty, Poaching With Larger Goats src
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Use of Cryptocurrency Is Not Allowed in Uganda, Says Bank of Uganda src
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If Bread Is Expensive, Eat Cassava, Museveni Tells Ugandans src
Addressing worker’s unions and government officials during the Labour Day Celebrations at the Kololo Ceremonial Grounds on Sunday, the president said Africans should stop complaining about the scarcity of wheat and go with the flow.
“If there is no bread eat muwogo (cassava). Africans really confuse themselves. If you’re complaining that there’s no bread or wheat, please eat muwogo. I don’t eat bread myself,” he said.
- Namibia: Three-Months Relief for Motorists… As Government Reduces Levies src
North America
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The Great Resignation continues, as a record number of workers quit (4.5 million) and a record number of job openings got posted (200,000 more than February and 11.5 million overall). Haven’t these workers seen the latest headlines about how the US is doing fine with inflation and the economy is pretty great? src
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U.S. manufacturing activity slowest in more than one and half years as workers quit src
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Long-term U.S. LNG deals pick up as demand increases src
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Fed decision day rattles markets as investors worry that a giant ‘once-in-a-generation’ rate hike will actually be one of several this year. Add this to the mountain of once-in-a-generation things that has happened in the last two decades. src
South America
- Venezuela makes bid to revive the bolivar by putting a 3% tax on everyday purchases in dollars. This resulted in a slight shift away from the dollar. src
Policy makers tend to wrongly assume that it is possible to revert dollarization once inflation is under control, said Daniel Cadenas, economist and professor at the Venezuela’s Central University, pointing to cases such as Peru, where the use of the dollar is still common despite decades to combat it.
“Dollarization is not going to be reversed,” he said. “The cost for economic actors of going back to thinking in bolivars is higher than the benefits. As long as it remains so, dollarization will persist.”
- El Salvador’s $1 billion bitcoin bond reportedly hasn’t lured a single investor, and markets are bracing for a default despite their Finance Minister saying that there won’t be one. src
Global
- AMD says data center boom will boost revenue src
“Each of our businesses grew by a significant double digit percentage year-over-year, led by EPYC server processor revenue more than doubling for the third straight quarter,” said AMD chief executive Lisa Su in its statement.
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The Aerospace Industry Is Grappling With A Titanium Supply Shortage src
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New Lockdowns In China Are Hindering Global Steel Supply src
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Natural gas prices soared 9% to their highest level since 2008 on Tuesday, as US gas companies see a spike in demand. About 30% of US liquified natural gas export capacity has been secured since February 24th. src
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Gary Cohn, vice-chairman of IBM and former economic advisor to Trump, has said that ending globalization is impossible and would result in astronomical inflation. src
“Those who want to end globalization, good luck. It’s impossible,” he said. “We could go through thousands of things in this country that we just assume show up every day, that we do not have or we do not manufacture.”
“Do I think that a vast majority of things that come through ports in this country are going to stop coming through? I don’t,” Cohn said. “The inflation that would create in the system would be just astronomical.”
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Nutrien, the largest fertilizer company in the world, is looking at whether they could ramp up potash production, as disruptions “could last well beyond 2022”. It has already said it would multiply its potash production by 15 times, with most of that in the second half of 2022. src
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World Hunger to Worsen After Spiking 25% Before Ukraine War src
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Why the Conflict in Ukraine Is a Disaster for the Poor of This Planet src
Diplomatically and Politically
Diplomatically and Politically
Involving Ukraine or Russia
- Putin signed an executive order giving Russia the authority to halt exports and cancel contracts to retaliate against ‘unfriendly actions’ src
Ukraine Wars: Putin Strikes Back
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Russia will take further steps to reduce dollar monopoly as main reserve currency src
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The Non-Independence Of Western-Funded ‘Independent Media’ In Ukraine src
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Ukraine conflict rare ‘inflection point’ in history, says Biden src
President Joe Biden on Tuesday described the conflict in Ukraine as a historic “inflection point [that] comes along every six or eight generations,” and described the US’ role in the conflict as fighting the first “real battle” in a civilizational struggle versus Russia and China. Biden also promised to send billions more dollars worth of aid to Kiev.
Biden, known for his frequent verbal slip-ups, appeared to confuse Russia for Ukraine when he said that prior to the launch of Russia’s military operation in February, “we made sure Russia had javelins and other weapons … so Ukraine was ready for whatever happened.”
Biden also told his audience that Ukrainian parents are naming their newborn children “Javelin or Javelina” in honor of the American-made missiles.
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Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Chief has said that the Russian invasion would likely end with Putin’s death, and that Ukraine would win. src
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Russian media ran simulations of how their nukes could obliterate the UK and Ireland. ‘Just one launch, Boris, and England is no more’ src src2
“It actually seems like they’re raving on the British Isles,” Kiselyov said. “Why threaten never-ending Russia with nuclear weapons when you’re on an island that is so small? The island is so small that one Sarmat missile is sufficient to sink it once and for all.”
And I like this addition by the article:
Of course, the fact that the U.K. is geographically smaller than Russia is irrelevant for purposes of mutual destruction. However many ICBMs Russia has, what matters is that Britain has four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, each armed with up to 16 American-made Trident II missiles equipped with multiple nuclear warheads. That arsenal is probably sufficient to turn Russia into a nearly pre-industrial state.
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Who Will Pay For Ukraine’s Marshall Plan? Great timing by MSM, given that Michael Roberts was talking about a potential Marshall Plan for Ukraine a couple days ago. And it comes to similar conclusions - that Ukraine is, more or less, fucked. src
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The CIA is using Instagram to teach Russians how to share state secrets with it src
Europe
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Modi, Macron put Ukraine rift aside to take Indo-French ties to next level src
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Europe Is Better Than the U.S. at Talking to India src
Why have America’s European allies reacted so differently to India’s position on Ukraine? Partly, it’s because Europe thinks about its relationship with India the way the U.S. once did — as a partnership that goes beyond the transactional, in which each partner does not always have to agree. Partly, it is because Brussels has succeeded Washington as the location where consequential decisions affecting countries such as India are made. The U.S. has unquestionably turned inward under successive presidents. Meanwhile, the EU has taken the lead in setting regulations for big tech and for climate finance, and has developed its own strategy for engaging the Indo-Pacific region.
- ‘Embarrassed to be British’: Brexit study reveals impact on UK citizens in EU src
Brexit, and the British government’s handling of the Covid pandemic, strongly affected 80% of respondents’ feelings towards the UK, with responses including “deep shame”, “disappointment”, “a shit show”, “embarrassed to be British”, “shambolic”, and “like watching a house on fire”.
Just over 30% still felt very or extremely emotionally attached to the UK, compared with 75% who said they felt a very or extreme emotional attachment to the EU, and 59% who felt the same in relation to their country of residence.
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50% of Italians are against the supply of heavy weapons to Kiev.
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Would a Sinn Féin victory open the door to a united Ireland? src
Asia and Oceania
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Japan Says It Needs Nuclear Power. Can Host Towns Ever Trust It Again? src
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Beijing closes 10% of subway stations to stem COVID spread src
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Chinese aircraft carrier leads large strike group into western Pacific as Taiwan tensions rise src
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North Korea fires ballistic missile amid rising animosities src
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Joining ASEAN or not should not matter to Timor-Leste src
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Japan, Indonesia confirm cooperation toward free, open Indo-Pacific src
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Sri Lanka opposition declares no confidence in government src
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The Chinese government has decided to provide emergency humanitarian aid to Sri Lanka again, including medicine, food, and fuels, which are urgently needed now, according to Chinese Embassy in Sri Lanka on Wednesday.
Middle East
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Large protests in Yerevan, demanding the resignation of PM Pashinyan. I’m not sure where the dividing line between the Middle East and Asia is, but whatever.
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US representative to the UN: There is a possibility that we will not reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Africa
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Russian paramilitaries killing and torturing civilians in CAR src
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Sergei Lavrov: Wagner in Mali and Libya on a “commercial basis” src
In an interview with Italian television Mediaset, Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s position that Wagner “has nothing to do with the Russian state”.
Wagner, which is reputedly close to President Vladimir Putin, is accused of employing mercenaries who have committed abuses in Mali, Libya and Syria.
- Al-Shabab Raids African Union Military Base src
North America
- US issues visas in Cuba for first time in more than four years src
Washington closed its consular services in Havana in 2017 after US personnel suffered from mystery illnesses.
They’ve finally cured Havana Syndrome!
- White House will host first food insecurity conference in 50 years src
The White House hopes this year’s conference will result in a plan to help reduce rates of diabetes, obesity and hypertension among Americans and accelerate efforts to end hunger across the nation.
If you asked the average American to please eat less than one steak per day, they’d give themselves chronic diarrhoea just to own you. And hunger builds, like, character, or something. I’m not sure what can be done by the government here.
- How the oil and gas industry is trying to hold US public schools hostage src
Here in New Mexico – the fastest-warming and most water-stressed state in the continental US, where wildfires have recently devoured over 120,000 acres and remain uncontained – the oil and gas industry is coming out in force to deepen the region’s dependence on fossil fuels. Their latest tactic: to position oil and gas as a patron saint of education. Powerful interest groups have deployed a months-long campaign to depict schools and children’s wellbeing as under threat if government officials infringe upon fossil fuel production.
“Without oil and gas, we would not have the resources to provide an exemplary education for our students,” she says. “The partnership we have with the oil and gas industry makes me a better teacher.”
She said, blinking in Morse Code.
- Ron DeSantis Likens U.S. Abortion Laws to North Korea, China. src
“As Governor DeSantis noted today, abortion in most European countries is restricted after the first trimester (similar to Florida’s recently passed pro-life law). The position of Democrats in America today more closely resembles abortion policy in China and North Korea,” the statement said.
- Silicon curtain descending: The US is building a ‘digital alliance’ in the Asia-Pacific region with the aim of isolating China src
Global
- BRICS+ 2.0: Toward a polycentric world order. An interview with Yaroslav Lissvolik, program director at the Valdai Discussion Club in Russia. src
Militarily
Militarily
General News
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Slovakia to repair damaged Ukrainian military equipment src. Of course, Ukraine can still do it and everything, but uh, this is, uh, just Ukraine thinking about boosting Slovakia’s industry. Yeah.
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U.S.-Pledged Mi-17 Helicopters Arrive in Ukraine With 11 More to Go src
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Britain’s Napoleonic Posturing will be Exposed by Battlefield Reality src
“Britain has always stood up to bullies,” said Truss. “We have always been risk takers.” This is a rather serious misreading of British foreign policy, which historically has tended to be cautious and avoid risky leaps in the dark. Overall, Truss’s reduction of foreign policy to a series of triumphalist slogans could be set to music and take its place in an updated version of “Oh! What a Lovely War”.
But if the British Government’s actions in a military conflict – in which it is becoming more engaged by the day – is as inept as its performance in times of peace, then we face a dark and uncertain future.
- Putin tells Macron West could use its influence to stop “atrocities” in Ukraine src
Putin told Macron that the West could help end “war crimes (and) massive shelling of towns and settlements in Donbas”, leading to civilian casualties.
“The West could help put an end to these atrocities by exerting appropriate influence on the Kyiv authorities and by halting arms deliveries to Ukraine”, RIA news agency cited the Kremlin as saying.
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Can Western Tanks, Artillery, and Missiles Save Ukraine? Don’t Count On It. src
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Kadyrov: “It’s time to start the second stage of the special operation not only in the Donbass, but throughout the whole of Ukraine.”
Northern Ukraine
- Air raid sirens and missiles in every Ukraine oblast other than Kherson (and DPR and LPR). Missile strikes in basically every city in Ukraine. Looks like they’re hitting infrastructure and western military shipments.
Western Ukraine
- Lviv has been hit with more missiles, damaging two power substations and knocking out part of the city’s electricity, and well as railway infrastructure.
Eastern Ukraine
- Ukraine hits an oil depot in DPR.
Southern Ukraine
- Ukrainians strike Russian positions on Snake Island with military drone src
The military strikes appear to have targeted an area between a building and a communications tower, and another area that appears to have contained ammunition or another explosive. A number of explosions are seen after the initial one in the second area.
Snake Island, and the Ukrainian border guards on it, gained significant notoriety at the beginning of the Russian invasion when the island was targeted by Russian soldiers and the Ukrainian guards refused to surrender.
…and then they did surrender. It doesn’t mention that they did, in fact, surrender. Oh, it’s a “legend”, of course. It’s probably where the Ghost of Kiev is hiding.
- Almost all the cities in the south of Ukraine that came under the control of the Russian military are connected to the Russian Internet
Dipshittery and Cope
Dipshittery and Cope
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The Pope says the Russians are learning that ‘their tanks are useless’ in Ukraine Does putting the Pope on the Dipshittery and Cope list mean that I go to hell? Oh god. src
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Tesla most ‘future-ready’ carmaker, China’s BYD rising src
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company ranked first for readiness to navigate future crises for a fourth consecutive year
The index, which has been compiled annually since 2010, bases its results on a combination of financial fundamentals, investors’ expectations of future growth, business diversity, employee diversity, research and development, early results of innovation efforts, and cash and debt.
Tesla car batteries do, to be fair, tend to experience very explosive future growth, all over the asphalt.
- Russia is losing on the electronic battlefield. Mandatory shit about how Russia is losing and incompetent, 1053 quintillion dead generals, Ukraine is amazing, etc. Then: src
Ukraine has tapped into Russian communications, blocked its signals, blinded its surveillance, and captured some its most advanced EW systems, experts say. The United States and its NATO partners have provided crucial EW equipment and training. But American experts say it’s the Ukrainians themselves who adapted these high-tech weapons to protect their homeland.
Yeah, of course. Also, weird that separatists who have been getting the shit blasted out of them for 8 years might not do so well in electronic warfare.
- Johnson tells Ukraine that West was ‘too slow’ to grasp Russia threat src
Speaking via video link from London, Johnson called for Ukraine’s “friends” to be “humble” about their failure to act in 2014 when Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas.
“The truth is that we were too slow to grasp what was really happening and we collectively failed to impose the sanctions then that we should have put on Vladimir Putin,” Johnson said. “We cannot make the same mistake again.”
That’s one way of saying you didn’t give a shit.
“Your farmers kidnapped Russian tanks with their tractors. Your pensioners told Russian soldiers to ‘hop’ as we say, although they may have used more colorful language. Even in the parts of Ukraine that were temporarily captured, your populations, your indomitable populations turned out to protest, day after day,” he added.
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The West needs to up its sanctions game against Russia src
Once this new principle of sanctioning positions is in place, the United States and European sanction lists should be expanded dramatically. Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention has identified 9,000 individuals, while the Anti-Corruption Foundation founded by Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has recommended 6,000 people. Thousands of positions in the Russian government, Russian state-owned enterprises, including state-owned and state-controlled media, as well as all members of the corporate boards must be added immediately.
This list should include, at a minimum, those at the deputy minister level, all generals and colonels in the armed forces, police, and intelligence services, and anyone at the vice president level at state-owned enterprises. Senior officials and personalities being paid by Putin and state-controlled media companies also must be sanctioned, until they resign. Any member of United Russia and other political parties that support Putin’s invasion also should be placed automatically on the sanctions list. If these party members want to get off the sanctions list, all they have to do is resign.
Policies for sanctioning private sector individuals also must become more uniform. To eliminate subjectivity and lobbying efforts, all of Russia’s 100 richest people should be sanctioned, without exception. (And after they have been sanctioned, move on to the next 100.) However, these billionaires should be offered an off-ramp: if they denounce Putin and his war, suspend tax payments to the Russian government until the invasion ends, and pledge a significant fraction of their personal fortunes to a newly created Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund controlled by the government of Ukraine. High bar? Yes. But this is a horrific war.
Although their full effect might take years to be realized, sanctions, including individual sanctions, are working. But we need them to work better, faster and more justly to bring an end to this war. As long as figures like Gerhard Schroeder can evade accountability, the sanctions regime needs improvement.
Hey, wait a second, on April 22nd, NYT released an article about how sanctions don’t even work half the time, and might even make the country more “evil” or whatever! NYT
- Russian attacks on Ukraine grain network a move to cut competition src
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure look like attempts to reduce the competition in Russia’s export markets, German Agriculture Minister Cem Oezdemir was reported as saying on Monday.
Ukraine could lose tens of millions of tonnes of grain due to Russia’s blockade of its Black Sea ports, triggering a food crisis that will hit Europe, Asia and Africa, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday.
Broke: Russia started this war because Putler is evil and wanted to do an authoritarianism, a totalitarianism, and a 1984 to even more people because he’s evil. Woke: Russia started this war due to a long series of NATO advancements that fundamentally threaten the security of Russia, and really, US/NATO started the war by making/allowing Ukraine to ignore the Minsk agreements. Bespoke: Russia started this war to sell more grain, due to pressure from whatever the Russian equivalent is of the United Fruit Company.
- Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship src NFTs are like a tumour that randomly springs up in areas otherwise completely unrelated to them.
Shanghai residents are turning to the blockchain to preserve memories of the city’s month-long COVID-19 lockdown, minting videos, photos and artworks capturing their ordeal as non-fungible tokens to ensure they can be shared and avoid deletion.
A Shanghai-based programmer told Reuters that he was among those in the city who viewed their effort to keep the video alive as part of a "people’s rebellion”.
- A Russian oligarch says Putin’s regime has been ‘dehumanized’ and Ukraine will win because ‘good always wins over evil’ Good hasn’t won over evil since the Soviets marched into Berlin, my guy. src
Tinkov added that he was proud because he managed to, even “in corrupt and archaic Russia,” build an “HONEST, free, and American type of business.”
Yeah, those two things are definitely at odds with each other.
“I lost everything, but I didn’t lose my soul,” Tinkov added. “I cannot earn money in a country that is at war with a neighbor, killing civilians and children.”
Yeah, and I got real “It’s impossible because it would mean something bad happening to America, and most importantly wealthy Americans, which would be bad, which means it would never happen, so it’s impossible” vibes from it
In an interview with Italian television Mediaset, Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s position that Wagner “has nothing to do with the Russian state”
But he also said Wagner wasn’t actually a real thing earlier? Something about PMC companies as the west conceives them being illegal in Russia. Seriously isn’t there anyone better than Lavrov to represent Russian foreign policy? Guy keeps saying weird things.
So Wagner is definitely real then, so much for those foreign policy cope articles that were written saying it wasn’t a real thing, that some people naively believed. And so much for all the contradictory statements from Russia.
