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Why don’t they just agree and join NATO anyway?
well that’s 2 absolute shit ass takes from “@midwest.social” in this thread, they’re not sending their best
Listen, the pollen count has been through the roof here lately, we can’t breathe well enough to get oxygen to the brain.
I made this comment more or less jokingly, but today I’m actually miserable. Jokes on me.
I was asking a question and received many helpful and some not so helpful answers.
Sometimes even realists and historical materialists wake up on the wrong side of the bed, and aren’t in the mood to answer the same question again, especially when it’s often asked in bad faith.
Joining NATO’s not an instant process and Russia would just restart the war the second they got a whiff of the process starting.
I suppose Ukraine and NATO could try to work in secret but it’d be a very dangerous game, and would rely on the total cooperation of a not entirely united alliance.
Turkey would probably informed Russia immediately, or maybe Polish minister would brag on twitter like in case of Nordstream sabotage.
Yeah, something of that proportion could not be kept secret even if all NATO member states were all in total agreement and unity and even with the avowed silence of high officials. It also would at least partially defeat the purpose of NATO if a state joining it were to be kept secret.
I’ll answer in two parts.
First, don’t assume a post-peace-deal Ukraine would be allowed into NATO. There has never been any serious attempt to allow them in. Just threats for Ukraine to begin the process. It is not unlikely that NATO wouldn’t even let them in.
Second, Russia could just invade again.
Because that eould be admitting defeat which loses a ton of territory and abandons a lot of Ukranian.
Russia is not anywhere close to winning the war, so there is no reason to capitulate.
There is absolutely reason to capitulate: the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have an average age above 40 and are absolutely scraping the barrel by conscripting any poor man they find. There is no universe where Ukraine pushes back the front to recover any substantial amount of territory. They have already attempted to launch counteroffensives in better conditions, and all they’ve achieved is to slow down Russia, never actually regaining any territory. The only reason they’re even in the war still is because NATO wants to sacrifice Ukrainian lives to weaken Russia, and corrupt Ukrainian politicians are making a quick buck by privatizing they country in the meantime. This is obviously not sustainable long term; in another year or two they won’t be able to recruit more people, or they’ll run out of artillery shlels.
