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If this was the deal after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, I could see it being ok. However, this is the second invasion in a decade.
What keeps Russia from invading a decade later?
They will.
Russia is running on fumes and Ukraine is continuing to bolster up. Russia needs time to reup
You stupid motherfuckers have been saying this shit since the war began without even the slightest bit of realization that Russia is an actual industrialized, manufacturing power, while the west has shipped almost all of its actual production to China and SEA
Ukraine is literally constantly running out of shit despite the entirety of NATO dumping military supplies on them and they’re the ones conscripting 40+ year old men but lol “Russia is running on fumes”
“Why hasn’t Russia won yet” because they’re winning, stupid, they are winning a war of attrition, the fact that they’re winning doesn’t mean they can just magically teleport troops into Kiev and declare Game Over. This isn’t some fucking paradox game, moron. The winning move is to keep grinding Ukraine into dust, not whatever dumbass shit you think Russia needs to be doing to win the war.
I can’t stress enough how fucking stupid you are if you think Ukraine’s current conscription reality is in any way indicative of them “bolstering up”
Meanwhile in the real world
- https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-army-15-percent-larger-when-attacked-ukraine-us-general-2024-4
- https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
- https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/11/christopher-cavoli-russian-military-losses-00151718
- https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
- https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68823399
- https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2024/en/1-russian-armed-forces-and-the-war-in-ukraine/1-3-russian-military-industry/
This has been the narrative since shortly after the war began. All that’s happened since is Russia has slowly advanced.
Taking everything you say at face value, the options for Ukraine are:
- Take a deal that maybe you can’t trust, but it at least gives you time to breathe.
- Keep fighting, and with the war going how it is eventually lose more than what you’ve already lost.
- Attempt to draw other states into the conflict so that you have a shot at what might be considered a victory, likely years more down the road under the best of circumstances.
There is no justification for 2, and 3 is highly unlikely – if other states haven’t entered the war already, they’re not going to do so now.
Not having Ukraine join NATO while saying “hey we might give ukraine nukes that could hit Moscow in 4 minutes”
