I repeat literally assessments of Russians, and claims of Putin himself. Domination of the black sea surely means evacuation of remains of Crimean fleet to Novorossisk, and almost complete absence of russian military in the black and Azov sea - confirmed by satellite imagery. Russia tried to turn hunger into weapon trying to block ships passing to Ukrainian ports, and failed - their unilateral withdrawal from the Istanbul agreement

Russians are people like anyone else. You, of course, can therefore find them saying just about anything. There is little overlap between what you have said and what Putin had said though I don’t know why I should care about that.

I think you may be falling victim to propaganda when it comes to the Black Sea. Ukraine has nothing there. Nada. Zilch. The stories that are accurate describe the targeting and destruction of Russian vessels. Logically from what I just said, these are true. But Russia maintains its dominant presence, particurly in the Azov Sea.

I am interested, or maybe anticipating entertainment, by your idea that satellite imagery confirms your claim. My experience with such ideas is with teenagers pretending to know how to analyze raster imagery and lying through their teeth about it because it suits the needs of propaganda. This is what often gets filtered into the press. Please show me your Black Sea dataset with no Russian vessels, I would love to see it. I can even analyze it for the presence of vessels if you give me the data. Preferably, tiled GeoTIFF. I suspect, realistically, that you have third-hand information from propagandists, and can give me no such information. I anticipate disappointment.

I agree that russia braced their economics very well and handled the sanctioned better than most anticipated. However, the pressure mounts and the government is forced to raise taxes - surely not a sign of a blooming economy.

That is no such thing. Under a forced national industrial investment regime, a capitalist government raising taxes should be expected. There is a Russian neoliberal faction that threatens to throw a wrench into things but they have been forced into less stupid positions by circumstance.

Recent Ukrainian targeted hits at major refineries, turning Russia to import fuels - this is important both in military and economical contexts.

Important, yes. But why think it is good for Ukraine? More pressure on Russia only increases the likelihood that they adopt a typical sociopathic Western war strategy of complete destruction civilian life. That is something that has not actually happened. It’s something I was wrong about in 2022. I did not think that Russia, a regional capitalist power, would use such restrained tactics. I had to rethink my understanding of Western psychology and militarism, as it is actually qualitatively different (and morw horrible) than every other instance. I had, falsely, projected cold Western logic onto others.

What I say is Russia is worse than it was at the beginning, despite territorial gains.

All economic indicators disagree, particularly when it comes to industrial capacity.