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11 points

Depending on the results in the last two seats, they would need 5-7 votes.

I really genuinely would not give a shit about this if it was just performative. But they have a real opportunity to express political power here, and there is no will.

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I’m assuming Democrats lost 11 net seats, which would bring them down to a 224-211 majority. It looks like all Representatives vote between the nominees each party puts forth.

So I think they would need 7 (to make the vote 218-217 in favor of Republicans), and we’d have a Republican speaker. It looks possible, but I don’t think it’s a clear-cut decision. They don’t really have anything to win (Medicare for All isn’t passing the Senate, especially if the Georgia races go red) and Biden said he’d veto it if it gets to him – that’s all assuming it passes the House, which it still probably wouldn’t. As for what there is to lose, it’s a pretty bad look (to put it mildly) to vote with Republicans, I don’t know what damage a Republican speaker could do, and if they successfully force the vote but it doesn’t even pass the House that would be used as “too radical for America” bait for years.

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12 points

The progressives have a clear opportunity to express political power. There are people demanding they use that to follow through on a campaign promise (get a floor vote on M4A). The response from the progressives to that demand is “No.”

Every single swing state Democrat who opposed M4A lost. Opposing health care during a pandemic is incredibly unpopular. Every Democratic M4A “no” vote is an open progressive seat in 2022.

There is no reason to make excuses for them. Leftists turning into pundits is exactly how you create the Obama phenomenon.

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The progressives have a clear opportunity to express political power.

To do what? What is there to gain, and what is the risk?

They definitely don’t have the power to actually pass any policy, that’s for sure.

There are people demanding

Who? A talking head, or is there real support from a bunch of actual people?

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They should absolutely not vote for Pelosi unless they get something significant in return. A floor vote isn’t that

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