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I think I drank different coolaide. Tesla produces a low number of cars, their cost per production are high, their parents are overhyped and thinking the market capitalization of tesla and apple can be explained from the products they produce is a reduced view of stock market valuation.

Besides the German tanks were over engineered and beaten to trash by superior soviet mass produced tanks which fit the job better. Something similar could be said here.

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7 points

I hear you. But this isn’t a military conflict. It’s not like the Germans could beat the Soviets by suing.

The benefit Tesla has is in the legal system. Even if they don’t produce vehicles themselves, they can license the tech to all the other firms on the list and collect a vig without any overhead. There’s also a real expectation of fully automated vehicles in one or two more Friedman Units. Assuming Tesla has a working solution for automotive automation, literally everyone else will need to license that from them.

The cars themselves are glorified tech-demos for the industry at large.

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10 points

I can speak with inside industry knowledge on this. Tesla is not a leader in vehicle automation. They are not even very competitive. They are very visible to consumer, but they can not compete without the use of optical radar. They have claimed to achieve close result with a camera, but this is not physically possible. Computer vision and camera sensor alone can not deal with road conditions reliably. They refuse to add any form of radar while others do. Their software is also not very advanced and is glorified cruise control.

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4 points

There’s also a real expectation of fully automated vehicles in one or two more Friedman Units

There’s not and anyone who thinks there is has been chugging musk koolaid way too much.

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3 points
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Tesla runs in Koolaid.

All of this valuation is predicated on the promise of future SuperTech that is all owned by Elon.

It’s speculation in the rawest form.

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