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everyone’s all ‘proxy war’

proxy war with who? china doesn’t support other socialist states enough for that :sicko-wistful:

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Yet. There’s a case to be made that as the cold war between China and the United States heats up, China will look around and realize that it needs more friends. We’re already starting to see this with the BRI, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, building HSR in Laos, shoring up relations with Vietnam, etc. China’s play has always been for integration with the global system to build themselves up. As the Americans block this strategy and signal that the world is closed to continued Chinese economic expansion, it stands to reason that they can fall back to the strategy Mao and Co already paved the path for with Third Worldism.

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one can only hope :mao-aggro-shining:

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The Vietnam stuff started happening immediately after the failure of the USSR. Deng supported the coup attempt against Gorbachev and immediately started working with the Vietnamese communist party to destroy the CIA backed “peaceful revolution” moment that was happening in both countries (and successfully did so).

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14 points

True, but i wouldn’t be surprised to see the US trying to drum up anti china sentiment in countries with belt and road initiatives in them

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the problem is a lotta ‘allies’ & white countries be signing onto belt & road, hard to manufacture consent for that

US will be bombing african nations as a matter of course, B&R or nah—and China very likely won’t arm the victims :trans-sad:

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China has also been drumming up domestic propaganda for war. The largest movies of the past decade have all been about killing American soldiers in defense of other nations revolutions.

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12 points

Africa is a large continent with a lot of Chinese money flowing into it and many US military personnel stationed around the continent.

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not that soviet aid was ever equal to US aid to atrocity, but i think guns & tanks & missiles ought to be involved for it to be a ‘proxy war’ :vivian-shrug:

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12 points

The US troops will merely serve in an “advisory role.” Just 100,000 heavily armed advisors.

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11 points

the dprk is technically china’s only treaty ally. so, probably the dprk

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the US would get owned but i really hope it never comes to that. korea has suffered too much

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9 points
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Deleted by creator
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DPRK also has a standing army equal to the size of the US army and 5 million trained reservists.

DPRK is literally tied for 3rd largest military (1.3 million) in the world with the US beat out only by India (1.5 million) and China (2.3 million).

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9 points
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Its not exactly a proxy war, but for the last decade or so some have argued for the continued US occupation of Afghanistan on the grounds that occupying it could be used to destabilize China.

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4 points

The BRI is partially a response to the Anglo threat of contesting naval trade with warships. Any war that pops up in a neighbor of China/BRI nation would potentially disrupt BRI development and China’s western independent supply chain.

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I think folks are really underestimating the extent that the ruling class have bought their own ideological snake oil and are prone to making really, really stupid decisions. The Iraq War was an absolute and total failure on every count, Afghanistan was a nightmare, the Project for the New American Century was a dismal farce. The strategic “pivot” to Asia hasn’t done anything at all, and the US trying to create a new Anglo strategic defense alliance has only gone ahead and alienated the EU. The trade war with China backfired and cut the United States out of supply chains. I could totally see the US getting into a localized war in the South China Fleet and expecting to win, having their entire Pacific Fleet destroyed in the first hour, and then imprisoning every Chinese person and Chinese sympathizer in the United States for the foreseeable future.

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25 points

This interview with Julian Feeld of QAnon Anonymous kinda supports this. Basically the people that were selling something they knew was bullshit have been supplanted by the true believers, now we have people like MTG getting elected and taking their death cult into a dangerous realm of serious action.

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25 points
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Another example of this is Claire Sterling’s 1981 book The Terror Network which argued that the Soviet Union was secretly supporting every conceivable terror group worldwide. Unsurprisingly the book was entirely based upon " CIA black propaganda " invented by the agency to discredit the Soviet Union.

The book had an incredible influence upon the Neoconservative movement who soon considered it gospel. This included Reagan’s CIA director, William Casey, who created an internal task force of the agency’s Soviet analysts and told them to find evidence for Soviet coordination of terror groups. When they came back and told him that no factual evidence existed because it was propaganda they themselves invested, he refused to believe them and started thinking the CIA was filled with Soviet sympathizers intent on misleading him.

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21 points

CIA was filled with Soviet sympathizers intent on misleading him.

:sadness: If only

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4 points

Basically, never underestimate how tightly Americans at all levels will cling to a piece of media and believe that it is real life.

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13 points

This is why I said we have until we elect some fascist psycho. Do people REALLY think we’re not going to get another Trump? Like the other guy said we have MTG in office, it’s not long until we have someone even more unhinged and loaded up on insane ideology like QAnon as president, along with a bunch of other nutters slowly worming their way in

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45 points

15 years? The objective of all the anti-China coverage is to manufacture consent for the increased military budget, but they don’t actually want a war. For a war to happen, the propaganda has to sink in deeply enough that they lose control of the beast they’ve created. Right now, I think if they let off the gas, it’d just be memory-holed.

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16 points

You’re right, and if they do that, they’ll need to pump it back up or find another scapegoat. End of History as an ideological solution had maybe a decade of life, max.

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41 points

For an offensive war against China to even be viable the draft would have to be reinstated

And when I say “viable” I mean just getting boots on the ground, to even approach anything looking like a stalemate would require military buildup surpassing WWll levels

And I’m sorry I don’t care how many fascists this country elects, the industrial capacity to push even a single American infantry brigade tens miles into China simply doesn’t exist anymore

A full blown conventional war with mainland China is never happening

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Yeah I think the bounds for war with China are a primarily naval engagement in the South China Sea with maybe boots on the ground in Taiwan. An attack on the mainland is a logistical impossibility for so many reasons.

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17 points
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And when I say “viable” I mean just getting boots on the ground, to even approach anything looking like a stalemate would require military buildup surpassing WWll levels

I think that the US has “learned” from past wars like Iraq. Obama’s war in Libya is a good example. There won’t be an “invasion”, the US will just try to destroy the country and leave. Preferably with zero boots on the ground.

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20 points

Yeah but that Strategy only works with countries that don’t have a real military

The US isn’t going to be able to bomb Chinese cities with impunity

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14 points
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Of course, I’m just saying that there would be no boots on the ground no matter what. Maybe in Taiwan, but not outside of that.

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33 points
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nuclear war is what they want to avoid at all costs, yes, but people are downplaying the fact that the scale of conflict could involve neither party being threatened enough to use nukes. a war between america and china wouldn’t be the all encompassing existential threat that warrants the use of such power. these are rwo powers separated by a vast ocean, fighting over islands in said ocean. no one could or would feasibly invade the other because once island bases like okinawa or taiwan are captured or neutralised, there’s no sense in doing anything but holding onto your gains and making it clear you’ve won and won’t budge.

wars between two nuclear powers can be hot, but localised enough and small enough in scale that neither country feels the need to escalate so dramatically as to destroy the world— but the death toll can still be catastrophic.

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16 points

This is assuming that the leader in charge of pushing the nuclear button is a perfectly rational emotionless person who doesn’t have dementia.

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5 points

There’s de facto precedent for that, Nixon’s defense secretary and Kissinger took away Nixon’s ability to launch the nukes on his own when he started drinking heavily after watergate: https://outrider.org/nuclear-weapons/articles/nixons-drunken-run-ins-bomb/

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