do you think thats genuinely happening or are people lying/fudging the numbers?
im worried, i have family constantly thinking this is just about to be over.
I think the numbers are stable right now, based on the current projections from IHME, Hopkins, and 538’s combined trackers. It seems numbers will continue to rise though without major changes in lockdown status/broad public opinion shifts.
In the long term, I think its important to keep in mind that COVID is not going away anytime soon, or even after a vaccine. The best data we have is indicating that not everyone develops immunity to the disease, even after a vaccine, and the rates of people who seem willing to accept a vaccine are not as high as they need to be(especially among conservative populations) e.g. COVID will become a seasonal illness, a “cough that kills” that we just have to remain constantly vigilant of.
happy to post links if anyone wants more data, I work in a center that is developing some of the vaccines so I try to stay looped in,
After the 1976 swine flu vaccine gave 450 people a neurological disorder i’m not too keen on being in the first wave of vaccine adopters either tbh
I think the overarching rationale behind a vaccine is that if a high enough percentage of the population get a vaccine(that presumably grants high levels of immunity, that may or may not be the case in COVID, more data needs to be seen), that the disease will no longer be able to spread since its potential host population is immune. This is all to protect individuals, who due to old age, compromised immune systems, or other malignancies are unable to get the vaccine,. Flu is an excellent example of this, young individuals are less likely to die from the flu and are also have stronger immune systems and can handle a vaccine, elderly individuals with weaker immune systems can not get the vaccine but are at greater risk, hence younger individuals should get the vaccine to prevent potential spread to older people. Its altruism on a larger scale.
also keep in mind that 450 people did get Guillain-Barré syndrome with the 1976 vaccine campaign, but that was out of 45 MILLION People vaccinated. 1 case per 100,000 vaccinated individuals, and this vaccine is widely regarded as a debacle and outlier in terms of risk. Whether or not the Ford administrations panic over the new strain of flu was rationale(it probably wasnt) the risks we are talking about are minor compared to the death rates for flu or in particular COVID.
this is not to say healthy skepticism for science is a bad thing, but perspective and altruism for the broader population are key.
Oh fuck no, jesus christ lol
Also, don’t just focus on the deaths. While that is certainly the most severe outcome, even people with relatively mild cases have long-lasting effects from this illness. Even if you’re not at alleviated risk, getting this shit ain’t pretty. It’s impossible to tell what kind of net productivity loss this will lead to down the line but coupled with the rolling in of the economic depression this shit will probably haunt the US for a decade or so. Better buckle up
