This sucks. Not that it won’t accidentally predict the future but this is literally a justification for enforcing inequality and gate keeping power.
I read a journal article somewhere IIRC about the tragedy of commons not actually occuring in practice as social norms for use develop.
Certainly many people have access to certain uses of land far beyond what you get post-enclosure Britain and things have generally been fine.
This guys not a historian, and you shouldn’t take these wannabe Hari Seldons seriously.
Turchin’s stuff is basically on the level of “The Chart”, I mean
It’s historically illiterate, Peterson level stuff, and I only know about this guy because he used to make ridiculous attacks on twitter against David Graeber (RIP)
“The Chart”
Omg imagine thinking the entire Islamic golden age never happened, and that the renaissance came out of a rejection of Christianity and had nothing to do with it.
Wow. The second one is pure drivel, but the “Well-being index” in the 1st one is :chefs-kiss: for ideological bias. Pretty sure the well being of enslaved and indigenous people was not included in the index during the “Era of Good Feelings.” Damn.
Exactly
Also funny how it shows literally no changes on the “Political Stress Index” during: the Whiskey Rebellion, Alien and Seditions Acts, War of 1812, Presidency of Andrew Jackson/ Indian removal, or the Nat Turner rebellion. Among many other things.
Like yeah, I’m sure the Civil War just appeared out of thin air, everything was going great before that until “the age of discord” just started for no reason at all.
Damn if only there was some school of history that has existed for nearly 200 years based on some pretty straightforward economic models saying things are gonna get worse as a shrinking class claims an increasingly larger share of wealth.
